The party's over:
The SCO Summit in Bishkek this past week wrapped up with barely a stir in the Western news, and after seeking in vain for a keynote sentence to sum it up, I learned there wasn't one. Joshua Kucera at his blog Istanbul – Beijing was able to cover the summit: his first impression was that there was a lot of speechifying about friendship. In this post he also discussed media resources, which looked considerable. They provided virtual access to all public events via electronics, but media correspondents were not allowed to interface as often directly. This sound like a lot of large event coverage if you’re asking me, and it's largely tolerated everywhere. . . though unsatisfying. In the end there was no press conference.
Nevertheless, though nothing striking or comprehensive may have been announced, that does not mean that the meeting did not make progress within. Just meeting together provides benefits and forums for unofficial exchanges and the strengthening of bilateral and multilateral ties, practice in the arts of diplomacy, and so forth. The main announcement out of the conference was that there would be continued economic cooperation–especially energy cooperationand signed a “Long Term Agreement on Neighborly Relations.” These included: economic cooperation, particularly in energy cooperation, and security cooperation, particularly military training and counternarcotics initiatives.
With that, let's go to the winners and losers: just remember, though, everybody won that participated overall, despite my “scoring” below:
Kazakhstan:
Win +3: Increased regional economic integration is important to Kazakhstan's WTO bid. Increased regional energy cooperation will mean more infrastructure development for Kazakhstan. Cooperation will also help Kazakhstan's prestige as it funds development from its new EADB bank.
Lose -1: Much of this increased development may have adverse effects on Kazakhstan's eastern territory.
Kyrgyzstan:
Win +2 1/2: A successful meeting with full technological and logistical spectrum met, which adds to the country's prestige. An opportunity, therefore, to assist Tajikistan in hosting the 2008 Summit. And, as Mirsulzhan Namazaliev reports, a new train route from China to Kyrgyzstan, which will increase Kyrgyzstan's trade opportunities. General SCO interest in counter-narcotics can only help Kyrgyzstan.
Lose -1 1/2: Although some energy cooperation will include water cooperation, the emphasis was on oil. Furthermore, Mirsulzhan reports that Kyrgyzstan, as a less-powerful country, did not assert itself much within the confines of the Summit. Therefore, previously-announced upgrading of the diplomatic section is not to be wondered at. But also, now that Kyrgyzstan has hosted the SCO for the first time, they have gained a lot of experience. More luck next year.
Tajikistan:
Win +2: Four general gains, none specific: Most of Tajikistan's gains came before the conference, as Iran has come courting Tajikistan with economic cooperation as part of its diplomacy to achieve SCO membership. The hydropower plants envisioned for Tajikistan seem to be well-supported under SCO auspices. A good look at what will be necessary for hosting next years’ conference. General interest in counter-narcotics will be of great help to Tajikistan in the upcoming year.
Lose -1: Uzbekistan made its intentions fairly obvious with Mr. Karimov's speech against hydropower installations which make it less easy for Mr. Karimov to waste water with impunity. This could cause trouble between the two states, which is a solid loss.
Uzbekistan:
Win +1/2: As I said, going is worth something.
Lose -1: Aforementioned hydropower development is going to make Mr. Karimov consider what to do about water shortages. However, it will be easier to make trouble with Tajikistan than it will be to fix Uzbekistan's sagging infrastructure, so bilateral diplomacy between the two states will take on some rancor.
Iran: an observer nation.
Win +2: Increased efforts at bilateral diplomacy in Tajikistan and Turkmenistan have borne positive results. Mr. Ahmadinejad was able to speak at the conference. Potential results look good.
Lose -1: Stepped-up counternarcotics efforts in Central Asia mean changes in narcotics distribution patterns for Iran, which could create some pressure in its Eastern regions. However, if Iran is included in any counter-narcotics coordination, this might not be much of a loss.
Pakistan: another observer nation.
Win + 1/2: Pakistan attended, which is good, and spoke publicly.
Lose -1 1/2: Pakistan's very public urgency to join SCO was politely rebuffed, and any stepped-up counter-narcotics in Central Asia will put pressure on Pakistan's border patrols.
Turkmenistan: (an observer)
Win + 2: The warm welcome extended by member states and the diplomacy from wannabe member states was marked. Mr. Berdymukhamedov did not speak at the conference, which probably suited him well, as he is moving carefully toward increased diplomatic relations.
Lose: nothing. It's a honeymoon period for Turkmenistan right now, although some of Uzbekistan's water concerns might well be shared by Turkmenistan.
The United States:
Win +1 1/2: Apparently earlier ultimatums from the U.S. had an effect, as no proclamation of U.S. hegemony was tendered at the end of the conference. Also, UN Undersecretary Pascoe attended, formerly of the U.S. Department of State. It's a temporary win.
Lose -2: Stepped up counter-narcotics operations in Central Asia will probably change some of the character of narcotics traffic in Afghanistan, which I don't think the U.S. is ready for. The increased cooperation within the SCO underlines the failing initiative of the U.S. toward Central Asia's Republics.
Other attendees: Mr. Karzai of Afghanistan. Other attendees who made speeches: India and Mongolia. Oh, and China and Russia? Solid wins, across the board. But you knew that already.
