If only it were that simple: but a crop of news analysts and bloggers are seeing a rise in Realist theoretical constructs to explain what is happening in Central Asia, the Middle East, and elsewhere.
What is Realism?
Contrary to its title, realism is not universally held to be the most “realistic” of theories. It has many virtues however, in that it gives a tight theoretical explanation of most phenomena in politics–especially international politics.
Realists presuppose a competitive environment, where power is the only political currency, and that winners take all and losers gain nothing. A system of alliances keeps order and peace between nations, with weak states banding together to check the power of one powerful state. Since these alliances are always based upon state-self-interest, they can be changed as conditions change. One modification of Realism, structural realism, amended the alliance system to describe the bipolar relations during the Cold War, where superpowers checked each other and other states banded with one superpower or the other across the world.
These theories are vastly compelling, but they do not adequately explain what to do in a world full of non-state actors. For Central Asia, two borderless, non-state affiliations challenge state security the most: international drug trade, and international terrorism. These two things are related, and a more accurate depiction would call this in general, organized crime. Other issues which do not suit a Realist mode would include climate change, energy commerce, and world financial networks–legal and illegal.
However, the nostalgia for realism seems to point to one “realistic” fact: we still depend upon the state system to solve non-state problems.
Here's where the discussion is currently taking place, so you can check it for yourself:
1. FPA's own Robert Nolan on the Middle East–Global Views: A return to Realism?
2. Ben Paarman at Neweurasia.net with a great roundup of articles pertaining to Central Asia: “No-New-Zero-Sum-Great Game!”
3. An old post at FPA Central Asia on “The N.G.G. Metaphor“
4. The IR Theory Knowledge Base Web site
Illustration: Keene, NH Public Libraries
