Yesterday I asserted the following:
As long as there is progress, however tentative and cosmetic, an outside world that has been loath even to think about intervening in Zimbabwe is going to continue to stand pat. This is Thabo Mbeki's roll of the dice. If these reforms prove effective, he will deserve a large proportion of the credit. But if they fail, and it is easy to succumb to pessimism and argue that they will, it all lands in Mbeki's lap.
Well, not surprisingly, South Africa appears quite pleased with the progress in Zimbabwe. Even a man whistling past a graveyard sounds happy with himself. But perhaps South Africa really is helping to clear the logjam to its north. As the most powerful nation in the region, South Africa ought to have tremendous influence.
But what is more surprising is that I appear to have been wrong, at least to some extent, about the effect that recent developments might have on the western powers, and especially the US and UK. British Prime Minister Gordon Brown has vowed to boycott December's summit of African and European leaders if Robert Mugabe is invited. Even more significantly, he requested his fellow heads of state to follow suit. Now Brown's threats and blandishments largely represent commitments of omission — promises not to do things — as opposed to commitments of commission, which would require actual action, but they strike me as at minimum symbolically significant, and might lead to more tangible accomplishment.
And of course we can already anticipate president Mugabe's apoplectic response: The accusations of neocolonialism! The colorful insults! The stubborn refusal to yield an inch! And did I mention the accusations and the name calling? But hopefully Mugabe's act will begin wearing thin not only among western leaders, but more crucially among African leaders who are far better able to dismiss Mugabe's vitriolic fulminations and whose absence from the upcoming meeting would speak volumes. If only a few African heads of state take the lead, a deluge might just follow.
