It looks as if COSATU has begun to forge its independent path in what is certain to be a rollicking succession battle within the ANC. I have long argued that the ANC will eventually find its greatest challenges from within, and that a viable opposition is most likely to emerge from a division within the tripartite alliance of COSATU, SACP and the ANC qua ANC. The reality is that there is no viable party from the left or right that is going to challenge the ANC's dominance any time soon, and that a particularly fruitless place to look is from center-right parties led primarily or even substantially from white South Africans, however well intentioned. Demographics and history mean that such a challenge simply has no shot at gaining traction.
COSATU has made their first move a strong one by quite clearly indicating that Jacob Zuma, he of the multiple criminal charges, including rape and various fraud accusations– the results of which are far from certain or complete — is their man. Indeed, in the sort of zealous absurdity that seems most common from political classes worldwide, Cosatu's general secretary Zwelinzima Vavi recently compared Zuma to Nelson Mandela. Hyperbolic analogies aside, however, there is no doubting that Zuma enjoys tremendous support among many among the masses of the working classes. Similar to Winnie Madikazela Mandela, Zuma seems almost immune to criticism among the COSATU/SACP elements of the ANC alliance who believe that the government attacks them because they speak truth to power that power has no interest in hearing. The ANC, meanwhile, is not thrilled with what the party's leaders see as COSATU's presumptuousness.
Almost assuredly Zuma's very public roller coaster ride will continue, as will the ANC's in what is shaping up to be the most acrimonious, and maybe the most significant, year in South African politics since the CODESA negotiations. Strap in. It is going to be an exciting but very bumpy ride.
