Let the Games Begin! Actually, the machinations over the African National Congress succession have been under way for quite some time and will continue to be the source of political infighting, manipulation, and polarization well into next year. The latest volleys have come from KwaZulu-Natal, where the Thabo Mbeki wing of the party has put forward a list of candidates for the ANC's leadership positions and national executive committee in which the name of Jacob Zuma is conspicuous in its absence.
What I fear is that this Mbeki-Zuma dynamic will not only come to dominate the succession struggle, but that it will convince Mbeki that he and only he is capable of leading the country through these difficult times, and thus will compel him to pursue a third term. Such a decision would be a disaster of epic proportions for the ANC, for South Africa, for the region, and for the continent. And it would, as is the case with all such megalomaniacal decisions among Big Men manquee, be wholly unnecessary.
Hopefully a divided ANC will guarantee that even with the ability to change the Constitution and allow Mbeki to run for a third term, the party will not be able to establish enough internal consensus to enact such a change. Between the Mbeki-Zuma split, the COSATU-SACP-ANC divisions, and the many voices of sanity that still reside within the ANC, there are thankfully lots of ways that the third-term plan will be scuttled. But the Eastern Cape, where the party has its strongest hold, supports another Mbeki term overwhelmingly. It could be one of history's cruel ironies that a part of the country that did so much to bring about democracy may now be in the forefront of efforts to subvert it.
No matter what takes place from here on out, Thabo Mbeki is destined to leave a contested legacy that historians will long untangle. He will put paid to any chance that legacy turns out well if he pursues another term.
