The ANC succession battle continues to emit heat if not light. Zwelinzima Vavi, general-secretary of Congress of South African Trade Unions (COSATU), recently remarked that “Many of the millions who are unemployed, or whose jobs have been casualised, are even worse off than under apartheid: about 20 million of our people are still mired in poverty, we still face many challenges, and the task of transformation is far from complete,” which drew a lot of attention recently and seems to augur well for Jacob Zuma. Zuma, for all of his recent troubles, enjoys the support of the country's unions. Vavi's overstatement (and it is a serious overstatement that seems blindly amnesiac about the country's apartheid history) nonetheless reveals the frustration of masses of South Africans who perceive the African National Congress as having abandoned their interests.
The more traditional wing of the ANC, meanwhile, has its own dream candidate. Unfortunately, that candidate has not actually indicated that he plans to run. Nonetheless, Cyril Ramaphosa's candidacy has excited large numbers of South Africans who see the former liberation hero-turned master negotiator-turned successful businessman as the party's best hope to escape its divisions and seeming stalemate. The question remains, however, whether Ramaphosa can be pulled into the campaign despite his reluctance. The Gaby Shapiro Branch of the ANC in Rondebosch is banking that Ramaphosa can be convinced to run and have nominated him as one of its preferred candidates to lead the party. The smart money says not to count Ramaphosa out.
The ANC race has hardly yet come down to just two candidates, and we will almost assuredly see the floating of many other names (including a woman, perhaps?) as possibilities. The next six weeks will represent one of the most crucial periods in South African political history.
