It really does appear that Jacob Zuma not only leads the pack in the ANC succession battle, but he also appears to be consolidating his hold on what he clearly believes to be the pending nomination. Part of the perceived change in momentum is the result of the ANC Women's League's National Executive Committee to switch allegiance from Foreign Affairs Minister Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma to Zuma to the consternation of some:
Thenjiwe Mtintso, South Africa's ambassador to Cuba and a member of the league and the ANC NEC, said the move came as a shock because she hoped the league would nominate a woman candidate.
"I was shocked that women can sit in their own conference without having any problem and nominate a man. It's really a sad day for us that we are not able to lead the pack."
The ANC Women's League has clearly made what they believe to be a utilitarian choice based on pragmatic considerations. But in so doing they have made the prospects of a real nomination battle less likely. If the National Prosecuting Authority chooses to pursue corruption charges against Zuma in the next two weeks, that might change the dynamic considerably. As of now, the NPA is either undecided or is keeping mum. Would it come as a shock to anyone if there was a last-minute surprise in which Thabo Mbeki and the current ANC hierarchy managed to apply pressure to the NPA to bring those charges?
