The countdown to the ANC's conference at Polokwane is well underway and it appears that the meeting will be the most momentous in South Africa since the CODESA meetings to negotiate the transition from Apartheid to democratic rule. The two key players in the political drama that is unfolding are Jacob Zuma and Thabo Mbeki. Both are polarizing figures. Both have their ardent supporters. Both have their equally impassioned detractors.
The political narrative right now, however, seems to be emphasizing Zuma's divisive nature. The “Great Zuma Debate” will almost assuredly continue for the next fortnight and beyond. Women's activists have lined up against him, for example, and party stalwarts have hemmed and hawed about their views of Zuma.
Meanwhile many within the party hierarchy are trying to move away from a simple Zuma-Mbeki narrative. Others worry that the party's divisions serve to destroy ANC unity. The reality is that ANC unity has been a chimera for quite some time. And in any case, if the allegations of vote buying and other untoward behavior is true, unity may not be the party's chief worry.
Remarkably, Zuma's lightning rod role in the current party debate has meant that the very idea that Mbeki is running for party leadership again has largely eluded scrutiny. His doing so has long struck me as a bad idea. Time is running short, but many, including myself, are still hoping that a third way will emerge in the coming ten days.
