I was as surprised as anyone to read this morning that Robert Mugabe trails in recent polls taken in Zimbabwe. And I was especially stunned to see that Morgan Tsvangirai, longtime opposition stalwart and largely overlooked (by me included) Movement for Democratic Cchange candidate also running against Mugabe and operating in Simba Makoni's shadow.
But let's not get too excited. For one thing the numbers hardly give us any real indication of what is going to happen on 29 March:
At least 23,5% said their vote was their secret, 7,5% refused to say anything, 5,4% will not vote, 4,4% said “I don't know”, 1,9% were categorised as “other”, and 1% will vote for Langton Towungana, the other candidate in the election. Tsvangirai is likely to win in urban areas, while Mugabe was bound to win in rural areas. Makoni has appeal both in urban and rural areas.
But furthermore, the following observation is vital:
Political scientist Prof Eldred Masunungure, who headed the national survey, said the main message from the poll was that none of the presidential election candidates would win an outright majority unless there was vote-rigging.
I like the almost wry (intentional or not) qualifier, “unless there is vote rigging.” It has become something of a mantra here, but let us all say it together: Mugabe is not going to let himself lose this election. Through violence, through corruption, through coercion, through threats, through vote-rigging, through paying the opposition, through losing boxes of ballots and peculiar rural outcomes, through denying urban residents the chance to vote and by making sure his thugs are at the polling places, Mugabe will ensure that he wins this election. Nonetheless, polls such as this one inspire hope and indicate that Zimbabweans are desperate for change, even if a silent plurality knows better than to say as much.
