Tea leaves are everywhere to be read in Zimbabwe. It appears that Robert Mugabe has lost the House of Assembly, the one area of the vote over which he had the least control. So what does this defeat mean for Mugabe? Will it provide more impetus for him to continue to find a way out while saving face? Or will it simply arouse his obstinance, cause him to seize control, and then dissolve Parliament, a right he has claimed and forced into law? Robert Mugabe is many things. Meek is not one of them. And so why would one expect a meek departure from him?
As Mugabe weighs his options, newspapers across Africa ponder what it all means, as do their readers, scrutinizing the same tea leaves we all only see incompletely. Many observers, whether from the chattering classes or the gathering masses, worry about a repeat of Kenya and its riots and violence in the wake of the recent flawed election in that country. The analogy seems imprecise to me, but the concerns valid. The biggest X-factor might be whether the MDC can convince the military, police, and other security forces to accept a ZANU-PF defeat and the very ascension of Tsvangirai to the country's leadership that they had promised they would never allow to happen.
So as usual in Zimbabwe, it all comes down to what Mugabe might do. The country sits on the precipice, looking down, with few signs of how deep the fall might be. As I write Zimbabweans are shrouded in the darkness of the middle of the night. And yet until this situation is resolved, darkness, and little more save the flickering light of hope, will remain.
