Tempered optimism may have dominated the news cycle with regard to Zimbabwe for a couple of days, as supporters of the opposition have basked in the prospects of something even “sweeter than a miracle.” But might grim reality be setting in?
Never mind that even if all goes well and the opposition emerges fully victorious not only over Parliament but also by taking over the presidency the overall outlook will hardly be cheery for Zimbabweans inside and outside of the country. More ominously, it appears that the long-feared crackdown from Mugabe's loyalists in the security forces may be underway. Apparently Zimbabwe's paramilitary police have begun raiding the offices of opposition leaders and foreign journalists, detaining at least a few of the latter. Intimidate and crush the opposition and the press. That is a longstanding hallmark of Mugabe's regime, and however belatedly, his forces seem to be coming to the realization that simple election theft is not going to be sufficient, even if it is necessary for Mugabe to hold on to power.
You will also want to read Patrick Bond's assessment of the Zimbabwe crisis at Pambazuka News, which has several other important stories on events in Zim, inlcuding the text of a petition from Zimbabwe Civil Society Organizations to the heads of state of the Southern African Development Community and a timely and apt statement from civic organizations in Kenya expressing sympathy and support for Zimbabwe. Bond's piece is among the first non-ZANU-PF voices to condemn, or at least harshly criticize, Simba Makoni's candidacy. While many of Bond's points have merit I believe that Makoni's candidacy almost surely allowed thousands and perhaps hundreds of thousands to realize that they could break from ZANU-PF if only they had the will and the courage. Many of us, myself included, became perhaps too enamored of makoni at the expense of Tsvangirai, but the reason for that is that Makoni may have opened eyes to the extent of disenchantment that in too many circles was whispered when it was spoken at all.
