So, what do we know today about the crisis in Zim?
Well, rumors swirl more freely than facts, and so what we actually know, as opposed to what we can project, is relatively limited. We know that we all are still waiting for something resembling real election results, that barring shenenigans on Mugabe's part, he has lost Parliament, and that none of this means much of anything until we know what Mugabe is thinking and planning.
But there are a few other developments that bear watching. While South Africa maintains its wary silence on the elections, the ANC has issued a predictable and unexceptional statement asking Zimbabweans of all parties to respect the results, however they turn out. One hopes this boilerplate does not ask Zimbabweans to respect any results just because the government announces them however. By playing so close to the vest it is tough to determine precisely where the government and the ruling party stand. Desmond Tutu has weighed in, praising Mugabe's legacy in a perhaps transparent attempt to soften Tutu's request for Mugabe to step down peacefully.
Other countries are beginning to do more than pay lip service to the situation in Zim as well. The British government appears to be leading the way for a coalition of countries to provide a 15-billion-rand emergency aid package to help prop up Zimbabwe's devastated economy. This relief, worth one billion pounds, represents a pretty substantial carrot. Of course it might just serve to arouse Mugabe to muster his forces for some stick-waving.
But it is the rumors that predominate: A deal for a runoff has been struck, averting a potential military coup. Mugabe has conceded defeat to a close group of his advisors. Mugabe's presidency is still very much “alive and kicking.”
What we do not know is what's next for Zimbabwe. And really, that is the only knowledge that matters. All of the carrots and sticks, the idle palaver, and the rampant speculation will not matter until we know a few basic facts: Will Mugabe step down? Will there be a runoff? Will there be a coup, or conversely, will Mugabe simply claim power? Can Zimbabwe recover from the wounds Mugabe and his little willful band of henchmen have inflicted on their country? Another day is fading into darkness in Africa's former breadbasket.
