Who benefits from the delays plaguing Zimbabwe's election? The smart money is that Robert Mugabe benefits by being able to consolidate his hold on power and marshal his resources. But what if the time allows certain facts to become clear and gives those Mugabe loyalists who are beginning to stray the impetus to do so?
Earlier today Zimbabwe's High Court ruled in favor of the MDC's application for the Zimbabwe Election Commission (ZAC) to release all election results. This is a clear defeat for Mugabe and his minions on the ZEC. But while the ZEC is at least putatively friendly to Mugabe, apparently not all is well on the commission, as the state has brought charges against seven members of the ZEC for allegedly deflating Mugabe's vote totals. There is rich, cruel irony attendant in the fact that in an election widely assumed to have been rotten to the core, with the state as the agent of the rot, the only corruption charges being brought are against those deflating Mugabe's totals. Welcome to the Never Never Land that is Zimbabwe.
The courts and an apparent smattering of ZEC officials do not represent the only thorns twisting in Mugabe's side, however. A group of war veterans, previously Mugabe's staunchest base of support, have broken ranks, calling Mugabe a “tyrant” and demanding that he step down. It is impossible to tell how widespread such sentiments are among the generation who fought for liberation, but if there are enough of them, they may provide the fulcrum to leverage Mugabe out of power.
The most likely result of all is still likely to be a runoff. But Mugabe's ability to muscle his way to victory may just be in doubt.
