Foreign Policy Blogs

An Unsurprising Surprise

In the latest developments in Zimbabwe, ZANU-PF, which now admits to losing to Morgan Tsvangirai, albeit in a plurality that forced a runoff, may delay the next round of voting for a year. During that time, of course, Robert Mugabe will remain entrenched in office and will use the interregnum to consolidate his rule. By law any runoff is supposed to take place within three weeks of the election, already an impossibility due to the vote counting process, but the Zimbabwe Election Commission has the capacity to delay the next round of polling. The decision has not yet been made, but the fact that it seems even vaguely plausible is telling.

This news and the general uncertainly surrounding the election fiasco has served ZANU-PF and especially Mugabe well. The opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) and its candidate Morgan Tsvangirai seems increasingly frustrated, divided, and stifled despite its status as the current front-runners based on their success in the March elections. They seem to understand that none of what has transpired of late bodes well for them. In the meantime Mugabe and his people seem confident and are prepared to contest the runoff, probably understanding as well as their MDC counterparts what this all really means.

 

Author

Derek Catsam

Derek Catsam is a Professor of history and Kathlyn Cosper Dunagan Professor in the Humanities at the University of Texas of the Permian Basin. He is also Senior Research Associate at Rhodes University. Derek writes about race and politics in the United States and Africa, sports, and terrorism. He is currently working on books on bus boycotts in the United States and South Africa in the 1940s and 1950s and on the 1981 South African Springbok rugby team's tour to the US. He is the author of three books, dozens of scholarly articles and reviews, and has published widely on current affairs in African, American, and European publications. He has lived, worked, and travelled extensively throughout southern Africa. He writes about politics, sports, travel, pop culture, and just about anything else that comes to mind.

Areas of Focus:
Africa; Zimbabwe; South Africa; Apartheid

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