Foreign Policy Blogs

No one really won


March 8 and March 14 reached an agreement.

The terms were:

  • Electing Michel Suleiman as President by the end of this week
  • Formation of a government based on a 16-11-3 formula (16 for the majority, 11 for the opposition and 3 to be chosen by the president)

  • Adoption of the Qada-based 1960 electoral law such as Beirut is divided into three constituencies for one time only


Changing the electoral law from the Syrian imposed one to that of 1960 is a step in the right direction for the Christians. However, I still believe that Fuad Boutros law is the best alternative.

Hizballah's weapons did not make it into the deal, although Ex-MP Ghattas Khoury, a member of the March 14 delegation said in an interview from Doha, that “Only the Lebanese Army should have weapons”, and “We don't want to be dominated by an armed militia and we don't want a civil war.”

Hizballah and Amal won (more than others anyway), but they did it at the expense of all Lebanese, Shia included. It was a sad day for Lebanon, and I am astonished that some hurried to celebrate. What is there to celebrate?! That Tehran and Damascus *(with the support of Israel – it is not a coincidence that Israel and Syria admitted publicly the talks on Golan) trashed Lebanon's sovereignty as a state? The problems are still there and this is the calm before the storm.

*What irony for Tehran&friends (Hizballah and Amal), the embodiment of the Islamic Revolution, to be nolens volens in the same camp with Israel…

PS. An interesting interview on Hizballah, Amal and the decades long cooperation between Iran and Syria.