Yesterday evening the Foreign Policy Association hosted a lecture by Ambassador Ronald Neumann (retired), current President of the American Academy of Diplomacy. As the former US Ambassador to Afghanistan from 2004 , 2007, Mr. Neumann has intimate knowledge of what happened there and also with the current situation. Streaming video of his lecture can be seen on the FPA website.
Ambassador Neumann took some questions, which were not featured on the video, but his answers were important so I include a summary below.
The first question was about the opium trade. Neumann concurred that drugs were a major problem there. The money to be made from poppies is so great that it too has played a hand in corrupting traditional Afghan society. The US must make an anti-drug policy part of our counter-insurgency program. He discussed the problems with some of the methods that had been tried to deal with the drug problem. The British tried to buy the opium crop in 2003, but all this accomplished was that more opium was planted to sell to the British! The farmers only make about 600-700 million on a crop of opium. Meanwhile the Afghans who ship it and deal it can mark up the price and make roughly four times that amount. This creates a good situation for the farmers as now they have two markets to sell to, the occupation forces and the dealers. So, if the British want to try to buy the opium, they will end up in a bidding war with the dealers who are willing to pay almost four times its worth because they know they can still turn a profit. Since the farmers are guaranteed a buyer, more opium will be grown, so buying the crop is not the solution.
As for the future, Neumann believes that this might be Afghanistan's last chance to break the cycle of war that has repeatedly engulfed the country. If Afghanistan is not brought together, then it will fragment even more and become a haven for terrorists. According to polls cited by Neumann, 53% of Afghans want America to remain in their country and help them rebuild it. Also, he pointed out that progress is being made in the government. The Afghan Parliament is a success story. They have been willing to set aside tribal feuds and reach a consensus on several important undertakings.
The last question was about the fate of Bin Laden. Neumann believes he is still alive because his death would be impossible to hide for long. However, his death is not operationally important anymore since he is not an active commander. It would only be politically important and serve to end the symbol of resistance he has become. Al Qaeda itself is fragmented. This means the smaller groups that still remain are not as powerful as the organization as a whole once was, however, these groups are much harder to find and neutralize.
