Anna Badkhen, writing in Baghdad for ISN Security Watch, wrote a commentary this week expressing her view that "the most lingering threat to stability in Iraq is the psychological fallout of the sectarian violence of 2006 and 2007." She discusses the long-term threat that is now emerging from the severe segregation of Sunnis and Shias. She recognizes that tension has existed between the two religious groups for "more than 1,000 years," but that now the two sects are so divided and the political situation so fragile that there is no real solution to such problems as resettlement. One month earlier, Anna Badkhen wrote another commentary on reconciliation in Iraq, in which she argued that "the tension between the two sects is so deep that even the slightest perceived bias sparks a new cycle of resentment." The fallout of violence in Gaza is also mutual distrust. The calm that has arrived today with the truce between Israel and Palestinian groups appears to have had little effect on general Israeli or Palestinian views. Ehud Olmert said yesterday, for example, that the truce will probably be short-lived and that a cessation of violence does not mean that Hamas has changed its nature or become lovers of peace. The New York Times reminds readers that the new six-month truce took months to conclude with Egypt's assistance and that violence was still raging on Wednesday. Unfortunately, mistrust at such high levels only confirms the reality that Hamas will forever be seen as terrorists and no peace deal will ever be in the making.
