China – You will have noted that the PRC surpassed the USA this past year in total carbon dioxide emissions. I referenced this here a couple of weeks ago and referred to the “NY Times” article that fleshed out the whys and the wherefores.
Much of the Chinese inventory of emissions, not surprisingly, is a consequence of products that they’re manufacturing for export. One way of looking at it is from the consumer's side: A new report says that Britain's carbon emissions rose by 18% from 1992 to 2004 if you consider “embedded emissions” from imports. This article from Reuters today talks about the study and refers to another statistic: “…up to one-quarter of China's carbon emissions were due directly to its export trade to Europe and the United States after they effectively sent their smokestack industries there in the 1990s.” That's the other point of view here – the producer's.
So when the US finally puts a price on carbon next year – the Good Lord willin’ and the crik don't rise – and the EU tightens up its regulations, then industrialists and others will really start to evidence concern about the big NIC's (newly industrializing countries), India and China chief among them, getting off without GHG limits. One way to address this is to impose tariffs on the high-carbon imports. I referred to this idea at Economic Levers for GHG Reductions and cited some recent articles that lay out the scheme. European Commission President José Manuel Barroso and French President Nicolas Sarkozy are among advocates of a “green tariff” system.
Clearly then, China needs to be at the table on climate change. For all the considerable, wholly justified alarm about China's exploding GHG emissions, they also seem to be concerned as well. China calls for help on climate change, from Reuters, says that President Hu Jintao recently “…urged organizations and companies to optimize energy use, recycle resources, increase forest coverage, explore water resources scientifically and strengthen international cooperation” in a quest to reduce risk from climate change. China, like India, has taken part in recent G8-related talks and will attend the climate talks at the G8 Summit next week. (See previous post.) See also the climate change coverage from Xinhua, the Chinese news agency, including Hu's speech.
Meanwhile, the AFP reports here “UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon told China on Tuesday to accept its global responsibilities on climate change, as he began a three-day visit to the world's most populous nation.” The SG also met today with the Global Compact China Network and said: “By investing and planning today for a future that protects our planet, Chinese business has an opportunity to be a true front-runner. I’m sure Chinese businesses will not wait for the long and complex intergovernmental agreements to be finalized, but rather engage pro-actively in China and elsewhere in the world to pave the way for a low-carbon path to prosperity.” (See the speech.)
So, how’re the Chinese doing? On some renewable fronts, pretty well it seems. PlanetArk's article from a few months back, Sun Rises Slowly on China's Solar Energy Sector, reports “A bevy of US-listed Chinese firms such as SunTech Power and foreign players such as Applied Materials Inc are starting to expand capacity in China, ploughing billions of dollars into factories across the country to capitalise on Beijing's intention to generate a tenth of its power from renewables by 2010.” A more recent Reuters article, China wind power capacity growing, says “China's installed wind power generating capacity is expected to top 10 gigawatts (GW) by the end of this year and to exceed 20 GW in two years, far above government targets…” Similarly, the “FT” in a special report on energy out the other day, had one analyst saying “…that worldwide production capacity for components will increase from about 3 gigawatts last year to 15GW to 20GW of production in 2010, largely thanks to a massive expansion of capacity in China.” The “FT” also reports “The outlook for wind also looks rosy in China and India, which are both adding turbines at a rapid rate…”
The Chinese still get 70% of their electricity from coal. Can they really get some traction on their addiction to a massively environmentally destructive practice like burning coal? It's not only the GHG problem, it's also the soot and other pollutants like sulfur dioxide and mercury. (See Black Carbon and Solar Cookers from April.) It's also the auto industry. It's also heavily polluting industries like cement making that are breaking the climate change bank. Can they stay focused and keep energy efficiency and renewables in play? Let's also see what, if anything, comes out of the G8 summit. It's all part of the intricately spun web of international climate change politics that is being spun from Kyoto to Bali to Washington to Beijing to Brussels to Hokkaido and to Copenhagen in December of 2009.
