Foreign Policy Blogs

Ambition is Dangerous in Central Asia

The battle for power, and political influence which begets it, is as old as human civilization.  Societies and States are not usually left wanting for people who want to be ‘in charge’ or 'take power.’  However, how this is done, as in the process of acquiring and maintaining political power, depends greatly from one location to another and from one political system to another.  For instance, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, John McCain, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, and many others very much desired to be the next President of the United States and they competed for this position within the American electoral system, which for all its ills and discrepancies, is rather democratic and fair.

On the contrary, the Central Asian states of Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, and to a lesser extent Kyrgyzstan all have a political process that is far from fair and is constantly manipulated by the powers that be.  A few weeks ago I discussed Tajik's political/governmental problems and this included the mysterious disappearance of Hasan Sadulloev, President Rahmon's brother-in-law and powerful businessman.  It appears Sadulloev had presidential ambitions and this led to his strange vanishing.

According to a report by Eurasianet's Farangis Najibullah, the Sadulloev incident is far from abnormal in Central Asian domestic politics.  Najibullah discusses the similar case of Rakhat Aliev in Kazakhstan, a former son-in-law to President Nazarbayev, who was charged with kidnapping, murder, and conspiracy to overthrow the government.  Aliev is now out of the country and faces a long prison sentence if he ever returns home.

Exile, prison, or death await those who threaten the political power of Central Asian leaders.  One should not be surprised by this unfortunately, as these governments are only accountable to themselves and their hold on power.  Even longstanding liberal democracies have their flaws, but they offer their citizens a chance to vet and have a voice in their next leader, something sadly most Central Asian citizens do not.

Najibullah ends her article on a hopeful note, stating that such corrupt stories as Sadulloev and Aliev's, may continue to frustrate a population which is hungry, unemployed, and dissatisfied with its government and that this may one day lead to change.  He quotes a university professor in Osh, Kyrgyzstan; “It was presidential family members’ greed that brought Askar Akaev's {former Kyrg President} demise, and it's not impossible that the same scenario can be repeated in Kyrgyzstan and elsewhere in Central Asia any day.”

 

Author

Patrick Frost

Patrick Frost recently graduated from New York University's Masters Program in Political Science - International Relations. His MA thesis analyzed the capabilities and objectives of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in Central Asia and beyond and explored how these affected U.S. interests and policy.

Areas of Focus:
Eurasia, American Foreign Policy, Ideology, SCO