Johannes F. Linn, a former World Bank vice president for Europe and Central Asia and current Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution, recently made an extended visit to the region and has written a series of assessments on key issues facing the region. Today, I would like to discuss two pieces in this series in which Linn tackles CA's water issues in great detail.
‘The Impending Water Crisis in Central Asia: An Immediate Threat‘: In this piece Linn layouts the region's modern water history and current and coming water ‘crisis.’ On this site we have already discussed how the harsh winter combined with the current drought has cost the region's energy and water sectors to be under great strain and how this has a dramatic impact on the region's population, especially its poor. Linn argues that the region is in for a difficult year ahead, comparing its last major drought in 2000-2001, and that situation could quickly deteriorate into a ‘major humanitarian, economic and political crisis.’ This piece concentrates on Tajikistan's dire situation, with Linn concerned that the upcoming winter may see seven million Tajik citizens with little or no electricity.
Linn highlights the complicated dance between the region's countries, with Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan upstream and therefore controlling nations and Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan as downstream nations depending on Kyrg and Tajik for water flows from the Amu Darya, Syr Darya, and Kambarata rivers and waterways. He reports that cross-border disputes along Tajik-Kyrg and Kyrg-Uzbek borders had flared up between March and May. The region's states also failed to come to an agreement over water management during a June 27-28 conference in Dushanbe, Tajikistan, where Uzbekistan refused to accept Kyrg's water discharge offer for the coming year.
The situation is very complicated and if you want to get a full picture of the region's potential coming ‘crisis’ I suggest you read both of Linn's pieces. So what should the region's governments and international community do to stop or at least moderate these water/energy issues? Linn offers four steps for regional governments and the international community:
1. Conduct an ‘expert assessment’ of the Central Asian water adn energy shortage and its impact immediately. In other words, find out what the heck is going on.
2. Based on the above assessment, regional governments and international agencies should ‘plan emergency responses.’
3. The UN, international financial institutions, EU, China, Russia, and the US should use diplomatic mechanisms to make sure that the region's water and energy problems do not develop into ‘open conflict.’ This is crucial.
4. An assessment of the region's long-term prospects of water and energy balances, with an emphasis on the effect of climate change.
‘Water-Energy Links in Central Asia: A Long-Term Opportunity and Challenge‘: Linn's second piece goes into more details about region's dam and irrigation systems, specifically Tajikistan's Rogun Dam. Linn posits three options concerning the allocation of region's transnational water resources:
A. Downstream countries (Uzbek, Kazak, Turkmen) could pay upstream countries (Kyrgf and Tajik) for the summer release of water stored in the winter, as was practiced in the Soviet-ruled days.
B. Downstream countries could build dams and reservoirs on their territories to catch the waters released by the upstream countries during the winters for summer use. Linn discusses how this has already been tried and has its setbacks.
C. (Linn's optimal choice) Build dams and reservoirs along the same river or river system in sequence or as ‘cascades.’ Linn argues this would ‘allow the release of water from the higher reservoir for electricity generation in winter, but catching and storing the water in the subsequent reservoir for summer release.’
I am no expert on this subject, but Linn's recommendations do seem to make sense, especially because he acknowledges the importance of creating a mechanism for the region's states to work out these policies together, for if they cannot work together none of his recommendations would come to fruition. In this regard, Linn suggests the creation of a ‘consortium of partners,’ which include all directly affected countries, regional powers (China and Russia), and international financial partners to help with funding the dams and power plants.
I will keep an eye on Linn and the Brookings Institution's future pieces about important issues facing Central Asia.
