Today, the Mayor of Mexico City and the Local Assembly have organized an unofficial referendum on oil reform. The referendum opens a new chapter on the impact of democracy on strategic public policy. Indeed, the referendum‚ a democratic institution‚ has the potential to stop or dramatically alter the progress made during the open debate‚ another democratic institution‚ over oil reform that took place during the last two months.
The debate over oil reform is the central part of an agreement between Mexico's main political forces that took place in early May 2008. According to the agreement, the Senate would organize a series of debates over different aspects of the oil industry in Mexico. More than a hundred and fifty intellectuals, high-ranking officials, members of congress, and scientists, among other leaders of Mexican society, discussed potential solutions to the many problems of the aging Mexican oil industry. The series of debates ended in July 22nd.
The debate has proven to be a fantastic exercise on democratic principles. Indeed, the debate brought together opposing political forces, ideas, and positions in a forum of tranquility and democratic discussion. In spite of this, another democratic device, that is, a referendum, could threaten the progress made in the debate.
The government of Mexico City has organized a referendum on the involvement of private companies in the oil industry and the approval of the initiatives produced during the debates. Depending on the votes, this could seriously halt the initiatives that the oil industry requires to survive in the following decades (high oil prices are not a sufficient condition for the long-term success of the industry). Although the results of the vote are not binding, the political tide generated by them might put pressure on the implementation and structure of the initiatives presented by the debaters.
However, the referendum might have the opposite effect. If voters decide that they support foreign involvement in the Mexican oil industry, and that they approve the initiatives produced during the debate; then the industry might experience changes in a short period of time. This is unlikely to happen (although voters can sometimes give some surprises). Indeed, the perceived role of the industry on national sovereignty, the rhetoric of the opposition forces, the conservatism of the ruling coalition, and the particular phrasing of the questions in the referendum, are not likely to produce support towards progressive oil reform.
