Thankfully, a cease-fire in the Russian-Georgian conflict over the South Ossetia and Abkhazia territories has been agreed upon by both states, unfortunately fighting still seems to be occurring in the Georgian city of Gori. The conflict in Georgia has ramifications in Central Asia and for its nations’ governments in many important ways. As former Soviet Republics, it cannot be comforting to watch their former ‘master of autonomy’ militarily invade another of their ilk, and one so close by. And though, the Georgian-Russian conflict has much to do with specific territorial grievances, one must assume that this is an overall Russian sign of its power in the region, a signal of its ability and ‘will to act’ in what it considers its sphere of influence, which includes the CA states. Democratic progress is also threatened by this move, as Georgia had made remarkable progress in this area since the Rose Revolution, and now its future is in doubt. There is also the matter of oil and gas supplies, as the BTC pipeline bringing gas to the West, circumventing Russia, and another pipeline from Kazakhstan may be threatened by Russia's advance. In fact, the BTC pipeline was reportedly bombed by Russia several times, but supposedly undamaged. Future pipelines that would go from Central Asian states, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and into Georgia or its neighbor Azerbaijan, for instance the Trans-Caspian and Nabucco pipelines, which would flow toward Europe, now have to be considered in jeopardy with Russia's destabilization of the region, and possible more control over pipeline routes due to its successful military campaign. This conflict and its implications are varied and great, and today I would like to provide a mass link dump of interesting pieces regarding the war, and let you comment on the past week's event's importance and ramifications for Central Asia and the broader region.
A short background piece.
Geopolitical Analyses – 1. Stratfor – ‘The Russian-Georgian War and the Balance of Power‘ 2. Agnyan Minchev's analysis for Focus Information Agency 3. David Dickson on the Oil/Gas Supply Implications (short and sweet) 4. WSJ Gerald F. Seib's argument of a ‘New World Order’ (not very convincing) 5. Chrystia Freeland's ‘New Age of Authoritarianism‘
US/West Policy Recommendations/Calls to Action – 1. Gary Schmitt and Mauro de Lorenzo prod the West to stand up to Russia 2. NYT Editorial Board lambasting Russia and calling for diplomatic action 3. Savante E. Cornell's ‘Don't Blame the Victim‘ 4. And for a Russian perspective, here is former Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev ‘Path to Peace‘
Months ago we discussed who would be in charge, Putin or Medvedev; well it appears that Mr. At the Battle Front with My Sleaves Rolled Up Putin is the one calling the shots in this war – 1. NYT ‘Russia, Putin, Assert Power‘ 2. WSJ's ‘Vladimir Bonaparte‘
Lastly, what did the US President and the two wanna-bes say, and what did people say about what they said – 1. President Bush's main statement, which got tougher and tougher 2. McCain's comments, includes nice summary of the situation's history and why it is important to the American people, discusses importance of democracy, and earlier on this blog we discussed McCain's hard line toward Russia, for instance kicking them out of the G8, well more of this has been talked about of late considering Russia's recent actions 3. Obama's comments, measured and realistic, emphasized the United Nations’ peacekeeping ability and that we need to stay engaged with Russia 4. Here's an analysis by the Sun Times comparing both Obama and McCain's positions, judging by the title, they liked McCain's position better ‘McCain, not Obama, was right about Georgia’
Your Comments, Analysis, and Questions about how this war affects Central Asia and the great power geopolitics are requested.
