Tripoli's tense situation continues. I don't know who is behind the attacks, and I doubt we’ll hear of the investigation results anytime soon.
Michael Young has a very good op-ed on the latest events.
Recently, colleagues who closely follow events in Tripoli have started hearing of Syrian warnings to the Lebanese that there would be no peace in the city until the Salafists were routed. Who would conduct such an operation but the army, explaining why soldiers have been the victims of recent attacks. Syria's implication in the bombings is highly probable, its objective being to push the army and the Salafists into a confrontation. This would create a serious rift within the Sunni community, weaken the disoriented pro-Hariri forces in Tripoli, and allow Damascus’ allies to regain the initiative in the city.
The reality is that Salafists in Tripoli are not strong. In the recent fighting between the Sunni quarters of Bab al-Tebbaneh and Qobbeh and the Alawite quarter of Jabal Mohsen, the Salafists, who belong to a variety of small groups, proved to be much less numerous than anyone had imagined. As a neighborhood leader in Bab al-Tebbaneh described it, the confrontations exposed the Salafists’ weaknesses, not their strengths. The brunt of the fighting was borne by the men of Bab al-Tebbaneh, though followers of a leading opposition politician used the hostilities to burnish his legitimacy as a “defender of the Sunnis.” The Alawite official Rifaat Eid admitted that the fighting erupted after a rocket propelled grenade was fired at his men by partisans of this opposition politician.
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It was no coincidence, either, that the bombing occurred on the day of Michel Sleiman's visit to Damascus. There were several messages to the president: that Lebanese security will continue to remain vulnerable if he opposes Syrian priorities (and that includes, among other things, Syrian choices for the post of army commander and military intelligence chief); that Sleiman's priorities, in turn, such as addressing diplomatic relations between Beirut and Damascus and the fate of Lebanese prisoners in Syria, are secondary to the Syrians; that intimidation remains Syria's modus operandi when it comes to its relationship with Lebanon; and that Sleiman would make a mistake to rely too much on the parliamentary majority, which is buttressed by a Sunni community that can be readily split.
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The bus bombing yesterday ultimately targeted not the army but the Sunnis. Syria wants them irredeemably divided. Hariri must ensure that such a plan fails.
My 2 cents. The Sunni extremist groups and other smaller groups may gain more ground, because the Future Movement is not present enough in Tripoli. Saad Hariri and his MPs have to work hard, to go on the ground, and let people know they are there to help. When you are poor and you’re offered hundreds of dollars, thousands or more, to create trouble, you cannot afford the ethical dilemma. You just do it.The socio-economic aspect is the first to consider. The core of those who truly believe in Taliban like life style is small and with help from Future Movement will become even smaller.
On the other hand, the new government has to help Saad. There are many kept in jails since Nahr el Bared without proper investigation. Let the state bring them to justice. If they don't have enough evidence, let them go and keep them under surveillance. There are enough state institutions, from police to intelligence services to follow up. Elias Murr is not containing the problem by keeping people behind bars in spite of the lack of evidence. He is merely giving them a reason to stir up more trouble.
The situation in Tripoli and the Palestinian camps will continue to be tensed, and we’ll see more groups, and factions within groups fighting as proxies for others.
