So the 8th annual Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit has begun. The meeting started this morning in Dushanbe, Tajikistan (though China and Tajikistan started bilateral talks days before) and features the head of states of all six members (I wonder if President Hu Jintao will be wearing all of China's 51 gold medals?), top officials from the four Observer States of India, Iran (Ahmadinejad), Pakistan, and Mongolia, and a lot of political baggage from the Russian-Georgian conflict. Also on the agenda are formalizing and streamlining the admission procedures (right now it must be a consensus), energy, transportation, security issues, and the combatting of terrorism and drug trafficking in the region. The Summit should have some success in coordinating efforts in many of these spheres and it is likely the the group's Observer members presence and duties will become more defined, but I would not expect any major breakthroughs and that would include adding Iran, India, or Pakistan as an official member.
In the past couple days, I have scoured news resources looking for coverage of the Summit, and unfortunately, but as expected, a dearth was found in the Western media (Financial Times was the only major paper with a serious piece so far and Russia/CA expert Stephen Blank wrote another one), while in the East there were several articles. And of course they took different views of the SCO's intentions and goals. Stephen Blank, who works for the US War College, argued that Russia was coming back to a group of friends after its recent dust up in Georgia and that the Summit would turn into a ‘forum for America bashing.’ On the other hand, the Russian News & Information Agency emphasized the cooperation of its groups members in a positive and non-confrontational light, stating the 'sCO is not going to change the world. It would be happy to cope with Central Asian problems.’
Now back to the SCO, and most importantly China's, view of Russia's incursion into Georgia and its recent recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent states. Chinese foreign ministry spokesman stated just a day before the conference that ‘during the summit, the various countries’ leaders can within the framework of the agenda enunciate their shared positions on issues of interest to them, including South Ossetia as no exception.’ China has been very cautious, its number one foreign policy strategy, so far in its diplomatic gestures and statements regarding the conflict in the Caucasus's, mainly advocating a ‘peaceful conclusion,’ but would things be different with Medvedev's presence and with the cover of an SCO meeting? Stephen Blank, in the aforementioned article, sure thinks so. He outright predicted that the conflict would be high on the Summit's agenda and that ‘China will endorse Russia's actions in the Caucasus’ was a ‘foregone conclusion.’ He also believed Russia and the CA states would then give ‘unequivocal support’ for Beijing's aggressive campaign to end instability in the Uighur dominated Xinjiang Province. Now I personally would not expect such a loud statement by the SCO or China, they are far too cautious and have their own separatist groups to watch over, Xinjiang, Tibet, and Taiwan, but I did think that Blank was on to something, but just too strongly stated. It seems that Medvedev and Moscow would expect a sympathetic ear and voice at the meeting also.
Well, it appears Blank, Russia, and I (but remember just a little bit) was wrong. Before the meeting, Medevedev discussed a ‘united’ SCO group, one that would send a 'strong signal’ to the West, and that its support of Russia in this instance and further expansion would "further growth of the authority of our organisation in the world arena." As of this morning, Medevedev has not gotten what he wanted and Blank has not gotten what he predicted, and I, well let's just leave me out of this. The SCO has already put out an official statement regarding the conflict and subsequent Russian recognition of the independent states. Here it is:
"The SCO states express grave concern in connection with the recent tensions around the South Ossetian issue and urge the sides to solve existing problems peacefully, through dialogue, and to make efforts facilitating reconciliation and talks."
No recognition of the breakaway provinces as states. No outright support of Russia's stance or against the West. Just ‘concern’ and ‘dialogue’. Now the Summit is just beginning so we should still have a wait and see approach, but this was not what Moscow was hoping for that's for sure. I will keep you up to date about the rest of Summit's events and happenings, especially regarding provocative anti-West stances, the admission of new members (Iran?), and of course any more moves regarding the Caucasus conflict.
