Forgive the silence the last few days. A monstrous illness felled me and then for the last day or so I have been waiting for the Zimbabwe situation to sort itself out. As I’ve maintained all along, I am thrilled at the prospects of a resolution to the political stalemate and am more than happy to have my cynicism proven wrong. The announcement of a power-sharing agreement is undoubtedly good news for Zimbabweans and for southern Africa.
And without, I hope, seeming defensive, how wrong was I, really? Heading into the elections I assumed that Mugabe would do whatever it took to maintain power. He clearly lost the first round of voting yet took the upper hand heading into a runoff that he dictated. Then he claimed victory in that deeply flawed runoff. Then he appears to have negotiated a way to keep himself in power in some modified form, and as important, to avoid stepping down into an uncertain future. Forgive me, but I am also going to leave a little bit of skepticism in reserve. After all — the leopard has declared that he has changed his spots. Yet I still see them. Mugabe, after all, remains president and head of government and will continue to chair the Cabinet in the new government. Forgive me for sounding yet another note of caution.
Nonetheless, the Movement for Democratic Change's Morgan Tsvangirai, who will be prime minister, deputy chairperson of the Cabinet and head of a new Council of Ministers responsible for forming government policy, is optimistic. A consummate politician, Tsvangirai is wary of Mugabe yet does not want the world to be paranoid about Mugabe, at least in part because Tsvangirai wants to send signals that Zimbabwe ia going to need outside help as it tries to recover from the ravages of the last decade. Tsvangirai has also shown himself to be a pragmatist. He did not want to share power with Mugabe. He felt that he won the election. But as events progressed he chose not to let the perfect become the enemy of the good. Mugabe was not going to cede power. Period. Yet there was an opportunity available in the last few months, and Tsvangirai seized it.
Now comes the hard part. Joint governance. Dealing with the economic calamity. Weathering the first storm when Mugabe does not get his way. And what of the country's security forces? Who controls them? Where do their loyalties lie? What about the alleged war veterans? What about the ZANU-PF stalwarts who said that Mugabe would never yield and Tsvangirai would never rise to power? Have they been placated? The recent agreements, in the end, mark not an end, but the very tentative steps of what we all hope will be a new beginning.
