Thabo Mbeki will be fighting for his political life this weekend when the National Executive Council (NEC) of the African National Congress (ANC) meets. Supporters of Jacob Zuma believe that Mbeki is behind political machinations in the judiciary aimed at Zuma and have called for Mbeki's ouster.
Mbeki's supporters insist that the President is not going anywhere. And the NEC has to be aware that removing Mbeki from office is a dire move that will lead to a political firestorm and will certainly divide the ANC, perhaps irrevocably. Nonetheless, the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) needs to be prepared for all eventualities, including an unexpectedly early presidential election and the ANC needs to be prepared for what will follow if the NEC really does force Mbeki out.
This is the state of Post-Polokwane politics in South Africa. the ruling party is deeply divided along lines that can only partly be explained by ideological fissures. The politics of personality have reached their nadir. It is hard to envision the NEC really following through on the nuclear option, especially given that doing so would surely create a political and constitutional crisis the likes of which South Africa has not seen since the CODESA negotiations.
The most likely outcome of this weekend's summit is that Mbeki's lame-duck status will be reconfirmed and the president will walk away deeply but not gravely wounded. Zuma's people want their pound of flesh. What they do not seem to recognize is that at some point their man, if he avoids all of the land mines set in his path, will still need to govern the whole of South Africa. The demands of party leadership and of the presidency are rather different, and may become more so once his supporters’ caricature of Mbeki is no longer in place to blame for all ills real and perceived.
