Cautious optimism seems to prevail in Zimbabwe, with an emphasis on the “cautious” part. And why not? For the moment relative calm prevails and the worst of the country's political deadlock appears to have been resolved. But Robert Mugabe still has his hands on, or at least near, the reins of power, talks have been deadlocked over the composition of Zimbabwe's cabinet, leading to violence, Mugabe has not been exactly conciliatory in all of his public statements, and in terms of daily life in Zimbabwe, little has changed except perhaps that hope seems more viable. Perhaps tellingly, Zimbabweans have not stopped leaving the country for South Africa and Zimbabweans in South Africa do not appear to be clamoring to return to Zimbabwe.
The European Union has decided to maintain sanctions against Zimbabwe for the time being. This is understandable from the vantage point of the cynical. Zimbabwe hardly seems a good bet yet and no one wants to throw good money after bad. At the same time, while in an ideal world the 29 March elections would have yielded a Morgan Tsvangirai victory and a Robert Mugabe concession, as we all know, things did not work out that way. But the power-sharing agreement has placed Tsvangirai in the new government and at least appears to have ameliorated Mugabe's power.
The EU has reason to be tentative, but it, and the United States, should be in the business of encouraging the half a loaf that has emerged rather than wring their hands about a full loaf that is gone in a country with very few loaves, whole or partial, to spare. No one is asking full-fledged gusto over the agreement. But the EU and the US need to do what they can to make sure that this step proves workable and allows Zimbabwe to move forward. By all means, keep most of the carrots on the end of those sticks, but at least provide a taste to indicate what might be yet to come.
