Foreign Policy Blogs

Mbeki’s Ouster

Details are sketchy, but it appears that Thabo Mbeki has agreed to resign after the ANC's National Executive Committee asked President Thabo Mbeki and several of his sympathizers in government to step down. The NEC took a long time in coming to this solution and appears to have been deeply divided.

I am surprised Mbeki went so gently, if that indeed is what has happened. The man will leave office an almost tragic figure. My guess is that when all is said and done Mbeki came to the conclusion that while he could have fought, and probably held on for the remainder of his term, doing so would have damaged the country even further. Mbeki's controversial reign may be over, and his legacy will long be debated. But i do not think there are any serious doubts that he loved his country. he will surely couch his resignation within the context of that devotion to South Africa.

Make no mistake: Just as the ANC conference in Polokwane in December did not mark any sort of end point in South Africa's deeply divided politics, neither will this decision. The ripple effects of Mbeki's forced resignation have only just begun.  Jacob Zuma's supporters might want to temper their glee for the time being. There is a large and angry wing of the ANC that is not simply going to stand by while this happens. And Zuma's loyalists had better hope that Nelson Mandela either supports these changes or remains silent if he does not. If Madiba is displeased, that could reshape the terms of the discussion quite quickly.