Today we will discuss two recent developments: An expansion of the Russia-dominated Collective Security Treaty Organization CSTO and the first EU/Central Asian Forum on Security Issues held this past week. What do these two developments individually tell us about Russia and the EU's role/position in Central Asia? Which cooperation discussions and pronouncements have or will have the most teeth? Are the Central Asia states successfully playing one group off the other for their own strategic benefit or are they being pushed around?
Last Friday, CSTO members Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Russia agreed to deploy troops and a missile defense shield in Central Asia to control the situation over 'tensions in Afghanistan.’ CSTO Sec Gen Nikolay Bordyuzha stated that the deployment will consist of 10 battalions and made the following statements regarding the new alignment's look and purpose:
“All CSTO members are concerned with fact of military objects appearance around them or such serious structures as anti-rocket shield founded. Such actions stipulate necessity of creation on the CSTO borders of a new military infrastructure, restoration of some its elements of the Soviet Union period.”
“Under ensuring collective security a role of Collective forces of the quick deployment is increased in Central Asia. Constant attention will be paid to its advancement of fighting preparedness and modernization.”
We discussed this rising development a little over a week ago and as was said then, the move clearly reference's the US missile defense system in Czech and Poland. Concerning the first quote, I’m not sure the smaller CSTO states are as worried about the Europe/US missile shield as one specific member, Moscow. The line about the arrangement having elements from the Soviet Union was also a little surprising, especially with the all the talk about a new Cold War lately, though largely dismissed. In any form, this is definitely a concrete move by Moscow to increase its military/strategic pull with these smaller states in what it sees as its sphere of influence.
On Sept. 17-18 there were held both the EU-Central Asia Ministerial Troika and the first ever EU-Central Asia Security Forum in Paris. Commissioner for External Relations and European Neighborhood Policy, Benita Ferrero-Waldner spoke to gathering about three crucial areas of interest between the two groups: Terrorism, Narco Trafficking/Border Patrol, and energy and environmental issues. In an interesting choice, Ferrero-Waldner opened up the forum by mentioning Francis Fukuyama's End of History statement and then quickly acknowledging that the recent events, aka Georgia, have showed us that ‘were not quite there yet.’ Ferrero-Waldner also did not beat around the bush about energy issues as she assertively stated Europe's and CA's priority must be to diversify, diversify, diversify! Here are her poinant words:
“Strengthening our energy partnership with Central Asia is a top political priority for the European Union. The region is central to our strategy of diversification of energy supplies and supply routes, a policy that is all the more pertinent after the events of this summer. The events in the Caucasus have given both Central Asia and Europe food for thought. The security dimension of our energy policies has been thrown into sharp relief. And, while we in the EU are intensifying efforts with regard to the security of our supplies, Central Asia also has a strong interest in diversifying its export routes.
We intend to redouble our efforts to develop energy links between the EU and Central Asia through diversified energy transportation routes and new energy infrastructure, including Nabucco. Making a reality of the long-discussed “southern corridor” must be the focus of our work together in the coming months, and I hope that at our next Baku ministerial in late November we can give new impetus to the creation of a Trans-Caspian energy corridor.”
There was no doubt what the central aspect of this Parisan meeting was all about, energy. More importantly it was about the EU obtaining closer relations with these states in the middle of a crucial period where Russia is attempting to cement their dominant role in the region after the Georgia conflict. As many no doubt noted, human rights issues were mainly but under the table during the forum with Ferrero-Waldner mentioning them once in passing.
Back to the questions I raised at the top: what do you think? Russia? EU? Central Asian States?
