Foreign Policy Blogs

CSTO Deployment: What are Moscow's and the Central Asian Leader's Motivations

nikolay_bordyuzha_csto_chief.jpgYesterday, we quickly went over the planned new alignment of the CSTO, which would consist of a deployment of 10,000 more troops and a missile shield, in what the organization's Secretary General called “a powerful military grouping of five countries in Central Asia." Eurasia Daily today provided more details of the new force structure, its internal complications, and ramifications in light of the Georgian conflict and rising Russia/Western tensions. The group's Sec Gen Bordyuzha stated that Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan would all participate and anticipated that the force will consist of regular troop units, brigades, regiments, or divisions. Currently, the CSTO's military component consists of Collective Rapid Deployment Forces, estimated to include ten battalions (4,000); it is planned that this structure will be subsumed into the new force structure.”

Now, the CSTO has many similar force structures in Central Asia and tried to create one similar to this in 2005 which never came into actual existence, so what are this deployment's prospects and why is Russia leading this military charge at this moment? One of you made this witty and mostly on-point comment regarding yesterday's post:

“The missile shield is obviously a counterbalance to the US shield in Eastern Europe. It's more kindergarten foreign policy from Russian; You have a missile shield? Fine, we'll get our own. See how you like that! Next, they'll probably let it slip that the coordinates for the NATO bases in Poland are preprogrammed in.”

Regarding this new deployment's talk of a missile shield, I largely agree with the above quote, but there is more to this deployment and Central Asian military grouping by Russia than just tit-for-tat against the United States and Europe. CSTO Sec Gen Bordyuzha mentioned that the new force was to help ‘control the tensions in Afghanistan’ and I, and others, believe that Russia genuinely fears the growing conflict in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and most importantly its growth or spread into Central Asia where Russia holds its gas dominance. Russia depends on stable and safe gas imports from Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan and any destabilization in the region could cause havoc on its energy import-export led economy. Russia and the Central Asian states are also not strangers to the nefarious powers of Islamic terrorist attacks and groups which may increasingly spread out from Afghanistan, or come back to, the Central Asian or Russian territories.

 

Russia and the Central Asian state leaders do not desire a return of the Taliban to power in Afghanistan, as the group is a major destabilizing force, spreading its Islamist ideology, helping narco-traffickers move throughout the region, and making pipelines and other transit routes impossible to traverse through the Afghan and also Pakistan territory. Putin and most CA state leaders showed their backing for the removal of the Taliban in 2001, by providing bases and logistical support to US/NATO forces and this continues largely today. Even with the Russian-West brewhaha over Georgia, Moscow still allows NATO forces utilized a Russian controlled corridor to transit goods, though Moscow has recently warned the Western alliance that they could close it anytime, and Medvedev just last week offered Afghan President Karzai 225 Russian police officers to help train the Afghan National Police.

Now Russia has commenced this new CSTO deployment in part to politically slap the West, but it also helps them deepen their strategic connections in the region and provide a ready-made force to combat the spread of Afghanistan's growing instability. For the CSTO Central Asian states, Russia and this new grouping are also seen as a protective shield against the rising chaos and danger of the Talibanization of Afghanistan. Russia/Medvedev/Putin may indeed have grand strategic plans in Central Asia, and this troop deployment may be just one spoke in the wheel, but it also provides a solid support system in what all those involved consider a real threat to regional stability and integrity.

(Photo Source: Eurasia Daily – CSTO General Secretary Nikolay Bordyuzha)

 

 

Author

Patrick Frost

Patrick Frost recently graduated from New York University's Masters Program in Political Science - International Relations. His MA thesis analyzed the capabilities and objectives of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in Central Asia and beyond and explored how these affected U.S. interests and policy.

Areas of Focus:
Eurasia, American Foreign Policy, Ideology, SCO