Yesterday's kidnapping of a dozen tourists and their Egyptian guides in southern Egypt raises three important questions whose answers have serious consequences:
1. Who did it and why?
Al Jazeera English has compiled a helpful lift of attacks against tourists in Egypt since 1992. The attacks that were not isolated incidents were politically motivated, mostly aimed at Israelis or at damaging Egypt's tourism industry, both of which are aimed at either punishing or weakening the Mubarak regime. The most recent bombing attacks in Sinai likely came out of the frustrations held by bedouins who were missing out on the economic benefits derived from tourism in the territories they considered their own. There has also been allegations that al Qaeda-type ideologues teamed up with these bedouins to expand their global reach and strike out against the Mubarak regime which supported the Global War on Terrorism.
This kidnapping has a different feel to it. It seems like banditry, and it seems opportunistic. It was not a planned bombing of a popular hotel but the snatching of adventure tourists far outside commonly traveled areas and the running away with them to a sparsely governed area. If that's the case then Egypt may want to consider improving security in the area. If something more sinister is at hand then a political solution may be necessary.
2. How will Egypt react?
In previous terrorism cases the Egyptian authorities responded with mass arrests of the bedouin population which caused more anger and resentment and likely led to retaliatory terrorist attacks. There has been little information on how Egyptian security forces are responding this time.
3. Who will benefit?
What political agendas will use this incident to its advantage. Will counterterrorism experts argue that Al Qaeda is burrowing deeper into the region? Will Egypt argue for the importance of continued military assistance? Will the U.S. seek to expand the Trans Sahara Counterterrorism Program east? If any positive action comes of this on the security front, it will be Egypt spending a greater percentage of its military aid on border security capabilities.
