Good morning. I just want to provide some real quick reaction and analysis to Friday's presidential debate between Barack Obama and John McCain. Here is the transcript (which I also put on the bottom of this post) and video, and here is video of the five minutes or so they spent on Afghanistan/Pakistan.
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As the United States current president was reviewing and possibly writing a new strategy for the conflict in Afghan/Pakistan (yes it should be called both now) each presidential candidate stated their views on the issue to the American and world audience. Though my overall thoughts on the debate were positive, (except for the complete lack of a discussion on the rise of China), and each had constructive and strong statements regarding their preferred polices to help bring stability to the Afghan/Pakistan situation, much was left wanting. Each advocated more troops, which I fundamentally agree with, but there continues to be nearly no debate in this country about how difficult this task is and what it is worth.
In the next few weeks I plan on delving deeper and deeper into both McCain's and Obama's views and likely policy regarding Afghanistan/Pakistan and the Central Asian region and Friday's debate is a solid place to start off. Obama and McCain each advocated an increase in troops, basically the 2-3 brigades that have already been set by President Bush, but differed in many other elements. McCain stressed the creation of a new military strategy, Petraeus's one in Iraq we can presume but he does not elaborate, and Obama focuses on Al Qaeda and the fact that the US presence in Iraq is having a detrimental effect on Afghan/Al Qaeda progress. Obama described the Afghan/Pak situation as ‘getting worse, not better’ and argued that the US needs to 1. Get Karzai to provide for his people 2. Control the narco trafficking and growing 3. Get Pakistan to go after Al Qaeda or the US should do it itself. McCain ceased on this last point to try and paint Obama as naive, arguing that ‘you can't just do that’ in regard to saying out loud what you would do militarily in Pakistani territory, but Obama stood strong by this argument throughout the debate. McCain to his credit tried to put some historical background to the conflict and even mentioned Waziristan!, stating that he’d been there and that the area hadn't been ruled since Alexander the Great, which is atleast telling the American people just how hard this task we are confronting is. McCain then stressed that the US must be careful with the newly appointed Zadari government, mentioning the recent Marriot terrorist attack, but alas you don't come away knowing exactly what he would do to get the nation to be a constructive and useful ally in this conflict. Concerning the entire debate, basically McCain talked too much about Iraq and too little about Afghan/Pakistan, China, grand strategy and Obama undervalued the importance of Iraq and the value of getting it right and concentrated too much on Al Qaeda.
All right, that was quick, but I promise more. Here's more! For the best unpartisan, analytical work on the two presidential canidate's views on the Afghan/Pakistan and the world, I recommend George Freidman's Stratfor articles, which are centered around this debate:
1. The New President and the Global Landscape – This is a debate preview of each canidate's positions and gives straight talk about the difficult road ahead in Afghanistan for either canidate and NATO.
2. Obama's Foreign Policy Stance
3. McCain's Foreign Policy Stance
I will post more about these canidate's views and possible strategies concerning Afghanistan and Central Asia in the very near future. What did you think of the debate? Did both candidates sound informed on the Afghan conflict? It's history? Did they each layout a strategy that can be implemented? Did they say anything different than what the Bush administration is saying or doing? What question would you have asked them if you were the moderator?
Transcript:LEHRER: Afghanistan, lead — a new — a new lead question. Now, having resolved Iraq, we’ll move to Afghanistan.
And it goes to you, Senator Obama, and it's a — it picks up on a point that's already been made. Do you think more troops — more U.S. troops should be sent to Afghanistan, how many, and when?
OBAMA: Yes, I think we need more troops. I’ve been saying that for over a year now.
And I think that we have to do it as quickly as possible, because it's been acknowledged by the commanders on the ground the situation is getting worse, not better.
We had the highest fatalities among U.S. troops this past year than at any time since 2002. And we are seeing a major offensive taking place — al Qaeda and Taliban crossing the border and attacking our troops in a brazen fashion. They are feeling emboldened.
And we cannot separate Afghanistan from Iraq, because what our commanders have said is we don't have the troops right now to deal with Afghanistan.
So I would send two to three additional brigades to Afghanistan. Now, keep in mind that we have four times the number of troops in Iraq, where nobody had anything to do with 9/11 before we went in, where, in fact, there was no al Qaeda before we went in, but we have four times more troops there than we do in Afghanistan.
And that is a strategic mistake, because every intelligence agency will acknowledge that al Qaeda is the greatest threat against the United States and that Secretary of Defense Gates acknowledged the central front — that the place where we have to deal with these folks is going to be in Afghanistan and in Pakistan.
So here's what we have to do comprehensively, though. It's not just more troops.
We have to press the Afghan government to make certain that they are actually working for their people. And I’ve said this to President Karzai.
No. 2, we’ve got to deal with a growing poppy trade that has exploded over the last several years.
No. 3, we’ve got to deal with Pakistan, because al Qaeda and the Taliban have safe havens in Pakistan, across the border in the northwest regions, and although, you know, under George Bush, with the support of Senator McCain, we’ve been giving them $10 billion over the last seven years, they have not done what needs to be done to get rid of those safe havens.
And until we do, Americans here at home are not going to be safe.
LEHRER: Afghanistan, Senator McCain?
MCCAIN: First of all, I won't repeat the mistake that I regret enormously, and that is, after we were able to help the Afghan freedom fighters and drive the Russians out of Afghanistan, we basically washed our hands of the region.
And the result over time was the Taliban, al Qaeda, and a lot of the difficulties we are facing today. So we can't ignore those lessons of history.
Now, on this issue of aiding Pakistan, if you’re going to aim a gun at somebody, George Shultz, our great secretary of state, told me once, you’d better be prepared to pull the trigger.
I’m not prepared at this time to cut off aid to Pakistan. So I’m not prepared to threaten it, as Senator Obama apparently wants to do, as he has said that he would announce military strikes into Pakistan.
We’ve got to get the support of the people of — of Pakistan. He said that he would launch military strikes into Pakistan.
Now, you don't do that. You don't say that out loud. If you have to do things, you have to do things, and you work with the Pakistani government.
Now, the new president of Pakistan, Kardari (sic), has got his hands full. And this area on the border has not been governed since the days of Alexander the Great.
I’ve been to Waziristan. I can see how tough that terrain is. It's ruled by a handful of tribes.
And, yes, Senator Obama calls for more troops, but what he doesn't understand, it's got to be a new strategy, the same strategy that he condemned in Iraq. It's going to have to be employed in Afghanistan.
And we’re going to have to help the Pakistanis go into these areas and obtain the allegiance of the people. And it's going to be tough. They’ve intermarried with al Qaeda and the Taliban. And it's going to be tough. But we have to get the cooperation of the people in those areas.
And the Pakistanis are going to have to understand that that bombing in the Marriott Hotel in Islamabad was a signal from the terrorists that they don't want that government to cooperate with us in combating the Taliban and jihadist elements.
So we’ve got a lot of work to do in Afghanistan. But I’m confident, now that General Petraeus is in the new position of command, that we will employ a strategy which not only means additional troops — and, by the way, there have been 20,000 additional troops, from 32,000 to 53,000, and there needs to be more.
So it's not just the addition of troops that matters. It's a strategy that will succeed. And Pakistan is a very important element in this. And I know how to work with him. And I guarantee you I would not publicly state that I’m going to attack them.
OBAMA: Nobody talked about attacking Pakistan. Here's what I said.
And if John wants to disagree with this, he can let me know, that, if the United States has al Qaeda, bin Laden, top-level lieutenants in our sights, and Pakistan is unable or unwilling to act, then we should take them out.
Now, I think that's the right strategy; I think that's the right policy.
And, John, I — you’re absolutely right that presidents have to be prudent in what they say. But, you know, coming from you, who, you know, in the past has threatened extinction for North Korea and, you know, sung songs about bombing Iran, I don't know, you know, how credible that is. I think this is the right strategy.
Now, Senator McCain is also right that it's difficult. This is not an easy situation. You’ve got cross-border attacks against U.S. troops.
And we’ve got a choice. We could allow our troops to just be on the defensive and absorb those blows again and again and again, if Pakistan is unwilling to cooperate, or we have to start making some decisions.
And the problem, John, with the strategy that's been pursued was that, for 10 years, we coddled Musharraf, we alienated the Pakistani population, because we were anti-democratic. We had a 20th-century mindset that basically said, “Well, you know, he may be a dictator, but he's our dictator.”
And as a consequence, we lost legitimacy in Pakistan. We spent $10 billion. And in the meantime, they weren't going after al Qaeda, and they are more powerful now than at any time since we began the war in Afghanistan.
That's going to change when I’m president of the United States.
MCCAIN: I — I don't think that Senator Obama understands that there was a failed state in Pakistan when Musharraf came to power. Everybody who was around then, and had been there, and knew about it knew that it was a failed state.
But let me tell you, you know, this business about bombing Iran and all that, let me tell you my record.
Back in 1983, when I was a brand-new United States congressman, the one — the person I admired the most and still admire the most, Ronald Reagan, wanted to send Marines into Lebanon.
And I saw that, and I saw the situation, and I stood up, and I voted against that, because I was afraid that they couldn't make peace in a place where 300 or 400 or several hundred Marines would make a difference. Tragically, I was right: Nearly 300 Marines lost their lives in the bombing of the barracks.
And then we had Somalia — then we had the first Gulf War. I supported — I supported that.
I supported us going into Bosnia, when a number of my own party and colleagues was against that operation in Bosnia. That was the right thing to do, to stop genocide and to preserve what was necessary inside of Europe.
I supported what we did in Kosovo. I supported it because ethnic cleansing and genocide was taking place there.
And I have a record — and Somalia, I opposed that we should turn — turn the force in Somalia from a peacekeeping force into a peacemaking force, which they were not capable of.
So I have a record. I have a record of being involved in these national security issues, which involve the highest responsibility and the toughest decisions that any president can make, and that is to send our young men and women into harm's way.
And I’ll tell you, I had a town hall meeting in Wolfeboro, New Hampshire, and a woman stood up and she said, “Senator McCain, I want you to do me the honor of wearing a bracelet with my son's name on it.”
He was 22 years old and he was killed in combat outside of Baghdad, Matthew Stanley, before Christmas last year. This was last August, a year ago. And I said, “I will — I will wear his bracelet with honor.”
And this was August, a year ago. And then she said, “But, Senator McCain, I want you to do everything — promise me one thing, that you’ll do everything in your power to make sure that my son's death was not in vain.”
That means that that mission succeeds, just like those young people who re-enlisted in Baghdad, just like the mother I met at the airport the other day whose son was killed. And they all say to me that we don't want defeat.
MCCAIN: A war that I was in, where we had an Army, that it wasn't through any fault of their own, but they were defeated. And I know how hard it is for that — for an Army and a military to recover from that. And it did and we will win this one and we won't come home in defeat and dishonor and probably have to go back if we fail.
OBAMA: Jim, let me just make a point. I’ve got a bracelet, too, from Sergeant – from the mother of Sergeant Ryan David Jopeck, sure another mother is not going through what I’m going through.
No U.S. soldier ever dies in vain because they’re carrying out the missions of their commander in chief. And we honor all the service that they’ve provided. Our troops have performed brilliantly. The question is for the next president, are we making good judgments about how to keep America safe precisely because sending our military into battle is such an enormous step.
And the point that I originally made is that we took our eye off Afghanistan, we took our eye off the folks who perpetrated 9/11, they are still sending out videotapes and Senator McCain, nobody is talking about defeat in Iraq, but I have to say we are having enormous problems in Afghanistan because of that decision.
And it is not true you have consistently been concerned about what happened in Afghanistan. At one point, while you were focused on Iraq, you said well, we can “muddle through” Afghanistan. You don't muddle through the central front on terror and you don't muddle through going after bin Laden. You don't muddle through stamping out the Taliban.
I think that is something we have to take seriously. And when I’m president, I will.
LEHRER: New …
MCCAIN: You might think that with that kind of concern that Senator Obama would have gone to Afghanistan, particularly given his responsibilities as a subcommittee chairman. By the way, when I’m subcommittee chairman, we take up the issues under my subcommittee. But the important thing is — the important thing is I visited Afghanistan and I traveled to Waziristan and I traveled to these places and I know what our security requirements are. I know what our needs are. So the point is that we will prevail in Afghanistan, but we need the new strategy and we need it to succeed.
But the important thing is, if we suffer defeat in Iraq, which General Petraeus predicts we will, if we adopted Senator Obama's set date for withdrawal, then that will have a calamitous effect in Afghanistan and American national security interests in the region. Senator Obama doesn't seem to understand there is a connected between the two.
