For the past few years there is always something happening in Lebanon. And rarely is something good.The country did not have a President, the government was weak and did not really work, the Parliament was closed. Then the clashes started inside the country. Then we have seen Doha and now we are in the post-Doha truce [reconcialition] time. Is it quiet? Not really. There is the situation in Tripoli. Briefly. The threat of the Islamists is real but we are talking about a small group. Still. True they have been helped from both inside and outside. From inside, I believe the help is much diminished after Nahr el Bared and after the attack on the Lebanese soldiers. Some realized that, hey, these guys are killing our own people, and stopped the financial support. Sure, they got the money from others willing to play their [dirty] games in the country. From outside, many take advantage of Lebanon's lack of stability, and there is a list of suspects to be taken out of the drawer.
My point is that this group of extremists can be contained, but for that you need the army to go to the places well known to many in the country, take away the weapons [this time for real], put check points in the problematic areas, and the intelligence to keep them under surveillance. The problem is that here even when they act its a half measure. They need more approvals, more green lights from countless leaders, self called leaders, imaginary masters and so on. This type of mentality harms the security of the country. I have no reasonable explanation [I am not interested in excuses] for it.
There are also problems in Ain el Hilwe, and Fatah and others are eager to contain the issue. As I can see no one hurries to rebuild Nahr el Bared. If they lose Ain el Hilwe too, it will get worse, for Palestinians and Lebanese alike.
What happens in Ain el Hilwe also has an impact on the security of the country. After Nahr el Bared, the Lebanese army should get into the camps and disarm the armed groups from left, right and center, in accord to the UNSCR Resolutions. No one attacks the Palestinians in Lebanon, and their excuses with Sabra and Shatila are long gone. These are another times, and to be frank they are guests in Lebanon. They don't get to impose their own ideas of security, of a state etc, if they have any in respect to Lebanon. If you take the Palestinian arms, then the other Lebanese groups will lose yet another excuse to keep their weaponry. And its not only Hizballah. Plus, the Palestinians are used by everyone. For the sake of all, help them socially, but they have no business in being armed. To do what exactly?
In camps they fight for streets. X is Fatah street and Y is for Jund al Sham and O is for Hamas and so on. This is gang like thinking.
The policy is to push the dirt under the carpet. That can only prolong the instability, and my guess is that what happened in Tripoli will not stay in Tripoli for long, if the state does not take drastic and immediate action.
