With increasing frequency since the February assassination of top Hezbollah commander Imad Mugniyah in Damascus, the Israeli Counter-Terrorism Bureau has been warning its citizens that the possibility of either above scenario being carried out by Hezbollah is high. The chatter has gotten particularly loud now that the Jewish high holidays have begun.
Should the Lebanese party strike Israelis overseas in the way Israel has warned they would, the Jewish State's response is likely to be muted, according to Jonathan Spyer, a senior research fellow at the Interdisciplinary Center's Global Research in International Affairs Center in Herzliya, Israel.
"Israel's response would depend on the extent of the attack," Spyer wrote in an e-mail message. "If it was small, it would be added to the ledger, and Israel would choose its moment to respond in a limited, tit-for-tat way. If it was massive, or on a very prestigious target, this could necessitate in Israel's view a larger and more immediate response."
"However, one of the lessons learned from the war of 2006 is the need for a process of very serious consultations before military action. The response could, for example, take the form of air action against Hezbollah within Lebanon. Unless Hezbollah did something massive and paradigm changing, however," Spyer said, "it's likely that Hezbollah's action would be noted, and Israel would seek to settle the account at a later date."
