Foreign Policy Blogs

No Problems in Mexico: Just a Reduction in Remittances and a Weak Peso

The impact of the (now global) financial crisis on Mexico has been more than marginal. Not only have remittances fallen dramatically since April 2008, but the Peso fell to a record low against the US dollar in the last few days. It seems that both the Treasury Secretary and the Head of the Central Bank in Mexico underestimated the potential impact of the economic crisis in the United States.

Given the "more than marginal" impact of the crisis on the Mexican economy, several authorities have implemented or proposed a number of initiatives. The auction of billions of US dollars by the Mexican Foreign Exchange Commission of the Mexican Central Bank has slightly stabilized the exchange rate. At the same time, Mexican President Felipe Calderon has decided to increase public spending. This is quite a surprising move, as cities like New York are now aiming at reducing spending (of course, New York has been severely affected by the financial crisis), and the Presidential candidates in the US have suggested that not all their campaign proposals will be easy to implement due to financial constraints.

Thus, in spite of the looming economic crisis, the Mexican government is going to spend more money in infrastructure. According to the authorities, this and another four initiatives, plus the "solid public finances" of the government, will help to cope with the effects of the crisis.

The authorities already suggested that there were no serious reasons to be concerned about the financial crisis. It seems that they were wrong. Now the President is arguing that his plan will prevent more serious problems. The question is whether Mexicans, and the market, should believe that.