By now you surely have seen the headlines about the historic election of Barack Obama as the next President of the United States. As an American, I’m thrilled to have Obama as our next President, and to know that the race and class barriers have been shattered by his victory.
Naturally, his election will have implications for US policy toward Mexico. When President Bush came to office in 2000, his first visit with a head of state was to then President of Mexico, Vicente Fox. The two pledged to work together on immigration reform. Sadly, the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 drastically changed American life and government priorities.
That said, there is now another chance to renew dialogue with Mexico on immigration reform. Though the headlines are now dominated by the financial crisis, the issue will surely come to the forefront within the next two years. Since immigration reform focusing particularly on Mexico was last blocked by Conservative Republicans, this change of power will present a new opportunity of political capital to work on immigration.
This begs the question: how will an Obama administration's policies on Mexico differ from the Bush administration's? First, I believe a Democratic administration will largely continue a bipartisan approach toward Latin America in general and specifically toward Mexico. The recently signed Merida Initiative to fight organized crime and drugs in Mexico will continue to have Presidential and Congressional support. The difference I foresee with that accord may be to place more emphasis on human rights from Congressional Democrats.
While Obama talked tough on NAFTA and free trade to win votes during the primary election, it is highly unlikely that the free trade agreement with Mexico will be modifided. During the Presidential campaign Obama slipped a comment to a Canadian official that anti-trade rhetoric was “political positioning.” What may change with regard to trade is whether or not Congress will renew Presidential “fast-track” trade authority which allows a yes-or-no vote by Congress instead of a lengthy process with amendments. With free trade low on the Democratic agenda, it seems unlikely that the authority will be renewed.
The change of power in the US will be exciting and have important implications for Mexico. In the next few weeks I intend to read through Obama's position papers and attend events in Washington on the implications for policy change. Like the Obama campaign says, “Si se puede!”
