So the questions remains, and likely will linger at least until South Africa's 2009 elections: just how potent a political force will the Congress of the People (COPE) prove to be? And how different from the ANC is the new party, really? After all, the transformations in South African politics boil down to personality clashes and ego as much as to ideological or policy differences. Think I’m wrong? Quick: name five concrete points of dispute on matters of policy between COPE and the ANC.
Lots of elements in the recent news cycle appear to be breaking for COPE as it prepares to make a full December 16 debut. Certainly the new party has some cause for optimism. High-profile defections from the ANC continue to flock to the party, including from such traditional ANC strongholds as the Eastern Cape. Survey data indicates that the ANC is losing support, and that these losses correlate with the rise of COPE. And COPE has begun putting together a communications dream team at a time when getting out the message (or at least getting out the party name) will be crucial to the party's survival as something more than just another faceless minor opposition party.
There is no telling what the future holds, but it seems quite clear that the fifteenth year after the election of Nelson Mandela's ANC is likely to be the most fraught in that party's post-apartheid history.
