As the year closes, we’re focusing on 2008 in review. Below is my take; see my co-blogger Alejandro's commentary here.
Summary
2008 has been an extremely turbulent year in Mexico. Drug-related violence dominates the headlines and is now the most pressing issue facing the country. Following President Felipe Calderon's crackdown on drug cartels–including deployment of more than 20,000 soldiers–violence has skyrocketed, leading to nearly all-out war with organized crime. Stratfor's Countries in Crisis series explains: “In 2008 alone, Mexico has already suffered more deaths from drug-related violence than all coalition deaths in Iraq since the war's beginning in 2003″. The rising insecurity is taking a heavy toll on the public; on August 30 more than 150,000 citizens protested in Mexico City's Zocalo, with hundreds of thousands more protesting across the country.
The Finance Minister, Augustin Carstens, estimated the damage of crime on the country's economy to be so bad that it reduces GDP growth by 1% annually.
As a result, the Mexico signed a security pact with the United States, the Mérida Initiative. This provides nearly $400 million in technical assistance, arms, and surveillance in 2008, and the same amount in 2009. Some analysts are beginning to draw similarities between this accord and the US-sponsored Plan Colombia.
Reform of Mexico's state-owned oil company, PEMEX, came to the forefront earlier this year. Faced with declining oil production and increasing debt, reformers hoped to make the company more efficient but were largely stonewalled.
During the US Presidential campaign, anti-NAFTA rhetoric was a favorite Democratic Party tactic during the marathon caucus season. A senior Barack Obama advisor famously told the Canadian government that the anti-trade should be viewed as “political positioning.” In the same vein, the Republican primaries focused on immigration as a hot-button issue. However, immigration received scant attention as the Presidential race came to a close, although Latino voters were overwhelmingly in favor of Barack Obama.
2008 also saw Mexico City host the International AIDS conference, bringing the country's commitment to public health onto the international scene.
Impact of Global Recession
Like most people, few in Mexico saw the global financial crisis coming. The Mexican stock market declined sharply, and the peso reached a record low against the US dollar (~ 12 pesos: 1 USD). Remittances are beginning to decline and will continue to fall.
Which event deserved more attention than it received?
The signing of the Mérida Initiative cannot be underestimated. It marks a significant step forward between Mexico and the US in the fight against drugs and organized crime.
A commonly held misconception about 'topic’
I’ve found that much of the press attention that Mexico receives in the US is negative. While it may perpetually appear that “Mexico is not doing enough”, President Calderon's seriousness in tackling organized crime and corruption marks an important transition point for the state-society mélange. This is a major challenge to a young democracy which deserves our attention after decades of porkbarrel corporatism.
Forecast for 2009
2009 does not appear promising. The economy will exhibit mediocre, if positive, economic growth, and remittances will decline. With drug cartels becoming emboldened, violence will worsen before it improves. Corruption now reaches the highest levels of the Calderon administration, which is pursuing a full court press against the cartels. Immigration reform with the US will be placed on the back burner, given more pressing international issues.
