General Summary:
It is nearly impossible to provide a cogent summary of a year in the life of a continent as vast and as diverse as Africa. With more than four dozen nation states, about a billion people, and vast geographic scope, it is impossible and even foolhardy to try to encapsulate the continent with any comprehensiveness. Thus this overview will of necessity be episodic and limited to my own scope, expertise, and focus, which means that I will emphasize political events (although I define “politics” broadly) in sub-Saharan Africa. If I leave out something it is not because that event or idea or trend or phenomenon is unimportant. It is simply because my own limitations and fallibility has led me to place my emphasis elsewhere. There are many Africas, albeit ones that are perhaps inextricably linked. Events in Zimbabwe are not necessarily connected to events in Kenya are not necessarily related to events in the Sudan are not necessarily related to events in Angola.
It is easy to castigate the Western media for its coverage of Africa, which tends toward the “if it bleeds it leads” variety that also manages to re-enforce stereotypes of Africa as the atavistic Dark Continent. That said, while we might wish for more and better, it is hard to disagree that the main stories that gained traction in 2008 were pretty important. From the post-election violence in Kenya that ended 2007 and ushered in 2008 to the ongoing saga in Zimbabwe in which the country had its own contested elections that ultimately led to the protracted, and now stalemated, power sharing negotiations, democratization certainly weathered its share of challenges even if Kenya and Zimbabwe hardly speak for the entire continent. Violence and displacement continued to reign in the Sudan, especially (but, sadly, not solely) in Darfur, accelerated in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and took a turn for the bizarre when piracy in the Gulf of Aden became the entry-point for many discussions of the anarchy in Somalia. The so-called oil curse continued to vex much of the continent, though the dream of oil riches continues unabated, even if the realities of that dream continue to be elusive. And in South Africa, politics continued to dominate the proceedings, with the stunning ouster of Thabo Mbeki and the emergence of the dissident Congress of the People (COPE) merely the most earth-shattering events in a tumultuous year.
The Global Recession and Africa:
When asked about the Great Depression in the United States some years later an African American man commented that while the Depression knocked everyone down a few pegs, black Americans had but few pegs to fall. I think of this when I consider the effect that global economic problems have had in Africa. On the one hand, it is too early to tell just what impact the larger economic crisis will have. On the other hand, one surmises that it will not be good. From a global perspective, the majority of African countries have but few pegs to fall. The poorest nations are the most vulnerable, and Africa contains a disproportionate percentage of the world’s poorest nations.
It is in this realm that the mixed blessing of resources might play the greatest role. For even in difficult economic times and even if the price of oil never returns to its mid-year highs, in the short-term the global demand for oil is unlikely to dissipate. This does not mean that African leaders will finally see the light and allow those oil riches to trickle down to the masses. It does mean that theoretically some oil-producing would be better equipped to deal with a global recession (or worse) were their leaders so inclined. Otherwise the early indicators are that Africa will suffer, perhaps disproportionately, if 2009 sees a deepening recession or even depression, as many experts seem to predict. Furthermore, the ripple effect of a struggling economy in the United States, Europe, and elsewhere could further hurt Africa: Will aid money dry up? Will other promises (The Millennium Challenge Fund, e.g.) fail to materialize? And will the suffering as the result of public health issues , cholera in Zimbabwe and now South Africa, AIDS in too many places , be all the more difficult to combat as individuals have to make hard decisions where to use scarce resources and governments and the global community do the same?
The prognosis, in short, is not good.
Deserves More Coverage:
The temptation here is to say, simply, that almost everything in Africa warrants more coverage than it gets, especially outside the continent. And that it certainly deserves better coverage. Given the stories that have, perhaps rightfully, received coverage in the global media, it might be worth looking at those developments, most positive, or at least not categorically negative, that have not. 2008 was a year in which millions of Africans went to the polls, and in many cases they did so peacefully. Ghana, for example, just got over a closely contested election campaign the results of which are not yet known, but that will hopefully achieve resolution without serious controversy. Angola, Rwanda, Swaziland, and Zambia all had peaceful elections. The Ivory Coast is in the midst of a delay that will hopefully allow the country to have successful elections soon. Even Kenya’s chaos yielded to a resolution that might allow Kenya to resume its status as a regional model. And while the Zimbabwe elections themselves ended in heartache, the reality is that even Robert Mugabe could not thwart the will of the country. He did not allow the Movement for Democratic Change to emerge victorious, but it was quite clear that win they did.
Perhaps less easy to categorize because they do not surround an election are those success stories, however qualified, across the continent. Angola is far from perfect, for example, but it seems to be emerging, however tentatively, from decades of chaos in a way that the DRC, Somalia, and Sudan have not. Zimbabwe is a nightmare. Botswana represents hope. Liberia, Mali, and Ghana represent West Africa’s continuing redemption from the abuses of colonialism and the difficulties inherent in independence.
Then there is South Africa. It is easy to look at South Africa and fear that the post-Apartheid era will eventually give way to a Zimbabwe in the making. Such facile worries overlook the dynamic, if contentious, political culture that has developed in arguably the continent’s most significant power. It is probably easy to look at the bizarre ouster of Thabo Mbeki as a sign that South Africa is on the brink of political chaos. Instead, however, what appears to be shaking out with the emergence of the Congress of the People is that the African National Congress, the most important party in South Africa, is going to have to give way to a more dynamic, but also almost assuredly more democratic political culture. And while the 2010 World Cup is not the panacea that its boosters would like to pretend it is, it does present an opportunity not just for South Africa but also for the continent as a whole. The world will get to know South Africa in 2010 beyond the hand wringing visions of what it might become.
These do not represent uncomplicated or cheery feel-good stories. They do, however, reveal that Africa is not merely the tableaux for tragedy.
Misconception:
The standard misconceptions of Africa are myriad and are ingrained in the popular mind. They are also tied directly to the coverage of Africa and its shortcomings. There are the silly ones: That Africa is a country rather than a continent. That lions and elephants roam the streets of thatched-hut villages, which are, of course, where everyone in Africa lives. But then there are the more pernicious stereotypes: Those surrounding tribalism and ethnicity in Africa. These things exist and they matter, but they are also so wildly misapplied that those misapplications do harm. The stereotype of Africa as a Dark Continent also has very real ramifications, as depicting Africa as unenlightened allows the rest of the world to expect violence and chaos, misrule and corruption as somehow natural and organic. Venality and selfishness and lust for power are no more part of the African DNA than they are elsewhere, yet Dark Continent misconceptions allow outsiders to content themselves with reductionism.
Predictions for 2009:
Before I move forward with predictions the majority of which are unlikely to be worth the bandwidth they occupy I thought I might share the predictions I made last year in the “South Africa: Year In Review 2007” feature I wrote for the FPA South Africa Blog. This should give you a sense of what my predictions are worth, though I hope the fact that my predictions are probably not worth much does not cloud the validity of my day-to-day analysis.
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FPA South Africa Blog Predictions for 2008: Predictions are a fool’s errand. They are rarely right, except when they are intentionally vague in the manner of astrological readings that create the conditions for almost anything to be interpreted as being accurate.
That said, here are some educated guesses as to what South Africa has in store for the next year:
Whatever happens at Polokwane will not prove to be the final arbiter in the ANC struggle for power. Zuma’s struggles are just beginning. And there is always the hope for a third way to emerge. Don’t be surprised if Tokyo Sexwale or Cyril Ramaphosa have something to say with how things play out. And if Mandela weighs in, all bets are off.
If Robert Mugabe dies, or something happens to make him yield power, the vacuum that emerges will lead to tremendous instability. As with most tyrants, Mugabe has not done anything seriously to pave the way for his successor. The fact that the Movement for Democratic Change is divided will only fuel instability. Thabo Mbeki needs to work to pave the way for the transition even if he is unwilling to force Mugabe’s hand. But it would be nice if Mbeki could find a way to force Mugabe’s hand.
The Springbok honeymoon will be brief, if it is not over already. The White situation is representative of a larger schism within the rugby leadership. And the conflicted views of racial representation on the Springbok squad will only exacerbate the void. Expect Allister Coetzee to gain traction as a possible White replacement. Coetzee would be the first black Springbok coach.
FIFA will continue to hold Damocles’ sword over South Africa’s head in the form of threatening to move the World Cup elsewhere. By the end of the year FIFA will claim that South Africa is on pace to host a successful world championship tournament. Their endorsement will not sound especially convincing. And yet it will be largely accurate. One will suspect that a European nation would not face such scrutiny.
The NPA will reinstate corruption charges against Jacob Zuma. Chaos will continue to characterize South African politics. This will be a boon to guys who write about South African politics such as yours truly.
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Actually, I did not do horribly. I think I captured the ongoing flux of South African politics reasonably well and I anticipated some, though not the details, of the problems in Zimbabwe. I got the wrong Springbok coaching successor but correctly predicted the short Springbok honeymoon. And FIFA has pretty much precisely met my expectations. In any case, here we go for my predictions for Africa in 2009:
I see the Congress of the People as legitimate challenger to ANC dominance in South Africa. Now, the devil is in the details. By saying that it will offer a challenge to the party that has dominated South African politics for the entirety of the post-Apartheid era I am not about to proclaim that COPE is about to take over parliament or the presidency. The ANC still enjoys tremendous (and deserved loyalty), vast infrastructural supremacy, and the very real perquisites of power. But it seems likely that COPE is poised to become the first legitimate opposition party in South Africa since 1994. What we still do not know is what policies and programs COPE will embrace that will separate it from the ANC. Though we also do not know what the controversy over the arms deal, which has already roiled the country’s political culture, will do to weaken the ANC’s hold on the populace. My guess is that the ANC will still garner 50% or more of the electorate in the next national elections, but that COPE will approach the 30% mark, meaning that savvy alliance building could provide a legitimate check on the ANC. (Part of me thinks that COPE may even be able to push the ANC below 50%, meaning that the alliance building will be even more feverish and that COPE really will be in position to challenge for national dominance within a decade.)
It seems possible that 2009 will be the year that some how, some way, Zimbabweans free themselves from the death grip that Robert Mugabe has applied to their country. Now he may lose some power as the result of a resolution of the sputtering power-sharing negotiations, still the most likely, if least satisfying option. In this scenario Zimbabwe’s government will continue to be precariously unpredictable, but such a phased transition will at least have the benefit of leading the way for Mugabe’s full successor. Less likely is the possibility that Mugabe is forced from power, either through a revolt from the security forces or externally via the use of force from abroad or else some combination thereof. And then, of course, there is the reality that Mugabe will not live forever. But while few will lament his passing from this mortal coil when it does happen, I cannot muster up the ill will to hope that he dies. Plus, let’s face it, as long as Mugabe is alive but out of power there is at least the remote possibility that he will be held to account for all he has done, though a negotiated settlement will almost certainly involve protections for Zimbabwe’s wily despot.
Here is a no-brainer, alas: Chaos in the DRC, Sudan, and Somalia will continue. The global community, led by the United Nations, will continue to chatter fecklessly. But it is hard to imagine a context whereby any of these three countries (I use the term only in its most literal sense) see the necessary force or resources applied to bring about serious change. We will occasionally see cease fires and hopeful projections, but in the long run, as 2010 approaches the DRC will be an unmanageable mess, especially in the remote eastern regions, Khartoum-fomented death and displacement will characterize the hinterlands in the Sudan, and Somalia will epitomize a stateless, anarchic society. I sincerely hope I am wrong on this one.
Oil will represent no more of a boon for the majority of African people in the continent’s oil-producing states. And this truism will stop absolutely no one in a position to do some from pursuing the alleged riches of oil that benefit the few at the expense of the majority. Let us just hope that Ghana, which expects to see oil production within a year or so, can introduce a new model for oil exploration and development in Africa.
While we will not know it a year from now, African qualifying for the 2010 World Cup will produce at least one team likely to make the knockout rounds and scare at least one traditional power. Who will be 2010’s Ghana? (Or Cameroon? Or Nigeria?) And can Bafana Bafana, South Africa’s national soccer team, pull together all of the resources that ought to make the country a soccer power? Because in recent years the national team has been profoundly disappointing to its millions of supporters. I think that it can. National pride and the allocation of resources will help South Africa return to the glories years of the mid-to-late 1990s. Also: As the year progresses, we will hear more stories, both of the pessimistic type but also increasingly optimistic ones, about the country’s preparations for the globe’s premier sporting event.
Finally, in December 2009 the writer of the FPA Africa Blog’s “Year in Review: 2009” will lament the coverage of Africa, will try to highlight overlooked good news, and will put forward a bunch of predictions destined to go awry.
As always, thanks for reading.
