Robert Mugabe has taken a month-long leave, part of which he will spend outside of Zimbabwe. To say the least, Mugabe's plans raise a slew of questions. Are there any ramifications for this trip? Is this merely Mugabe's solipsism coming to the fore? Is the old despot suffering from ill health? Is it even remotely possible that this will mark the first stages of Mugabe negotiating for himself a golden parachute into exile? Could Mugabe face a coup from within his military, police, security, or intelligence apparatus? Is the rest of ZANU-PF in the loop? And what of Morgan Tsvangirai and the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC)? What do they do during this interregnum? Will the party's leaders be safe? Most have long assumed the negotiations to be dead. Is this merely a confirmation of this belief or can something more be read into it?
Most likely a month from now status quo ante will prevail. But it would not surprise me if in the next few weeks there are some developments that change the dynamic in Zimbabwe one way or the other, and in the short-term not for the good. This would eveninclude Mugabe's departure from power, which will inevitably leave a vacuum in both ZANU-PF and in the country's politics even if it would be for the best — and the scenario many of us have hoped to see transpire for quite some time. As we know, African politics tends to abhor a vacuum.
