There have been some interconnected developments on the Sudan/Darfur front that bear watching. First, the Sudanese government is set to sit down with the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) rebels in Qatar in order to try to kickstart peace talks. It is frankly difficult to muster up a whole lot of optimism that these talks will go anywhere that previous talks have not taken the main antagonists. Khartoum has not shown itself to be an even vaguely honest broker and is in fact just the opposite. And JEM hardly is in a position now categorically to agree to peace if it ever has been.
The International Criminal Court, meanwhile, appears set to take action against Sudan’s President Omar Hassan al-Bashir, likely by charging him with genocide and a host of war crimes. The United Nations, meanwhile, has warned Khartoum against retaliating against UN peacekeepers if an indictment does come down. Now to be fair, UN threats against despotic regimes tend to be pretty worthless. But if Ban Ki-Moon is prepared to give UN forces some teeth and the ability to gnash them, it might signal a tipping point in the region. I would not bet my next paycheck on it, but I will hope that the United Nations is prepared to take a stronger stand against regimes such as the one operating in Khartoum.
