So there is a deal in Zimbabwe. Robert Mugabe has yielded enough to allow Morgan Tsvangirai finally to take his place in government, as Prime Minister to Mugabe’s President. Tsvangirai’s MDC and Mugabe’s ZANU-PF will govern together. Tsvangirai was even able to appoint his chosen finance minister, Tendai Biti, the MDC’s General secretary, and he, at least, is not blinded by recent events, as Tsvangirai says that he will continue to fight Mugabe, albeit from within government.
One need only click on this page’s “Zimbabwe” category to see get a sense of my pessimism over the two years or so that I have been writing for the Foreign Policy Association. So maybe I am just being intransigent, and maybe it will seem that I am desperate for my thesis to hold to the point where I refuse to recognize good news when it comes, but color me sceptical. And remember that I am far from alone.
Reaching an agreement and implementing its early stages is surely good news and I absolutely celebrate it. My cynicism and pessimism over the years has not been the result of not wanting Zimbabwe to succeed, but rather has been a recognition of the facts on the ground, the most salient of these being the presence of Robert Mugabe, a thug and kleptocrat and liar and criminal. And as long as Mugabe has a place at the table, indeed, as long as he sits at the head of that table, I will continue to fret. For achieving an agreement is a necessary but not sufficient condition for Zimbabwe’s political success. I continue to question what will happen the first time Tsvangirai and Mugabe, ZANU-PF and the MDC, are at odds on an issue of any import. Already Mugabe appears to have reneged on parts of the new deal: how much more bad faith is likely to follow? How one answers that question will go a long way in determining one’s outlook on the prospects for the new government’s success.
But for now, yes, let’s allow ourselves to celebrate, at least a little. Let’s hope that Robert Mugabe knows what his reputation has become and that he sees this as his moment of redemption, even if the rest of us know that recent events are simply too little and too late. But while we hold on to hope, let’s not let go of hard-earned reality. Caution, whether manifested in optimism or its opposite, is probably the most we should allow ourselves. So yes, let’s hope. Let’s trust. But let’s also verify. And let’s allow this to play out over the days and weeks to come. Let’s remember that cliches sometimes have utility: the devil is in the details, the proof in the pudding is in the tasting. And let’s not allow ourselves to be beguiled by this new Robert Mugabe, an old bitter wine in an alluring new bottle.
