Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will arrive in Israel March 3, one day after attending a Gaza rehabilitation conference in Cairo. During her visit, though, she may influence coalition building and the priorities of the next government.
Hamas intends to include the exchange of captive IDF soldier Gilad Shalit for 1000 Palestinian prisoners in a peace deal slated for finalization by next Wednesday. Previous reports indicated that Israel would include Fatah icon Marwan Barghouti in the exchange.
Coalition building nears finalization with religious party Habayit Hayehudi backing Opposition Leader Binyamin Netanyahu for Prime Minister, increasing the likelihood that President Shimon Peres will accept a Likud-led coalition. Meanwhile, Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, after obtaining a plurality of votes in Tuesday’s election, has yet to decide on either joining the government to obtain a highly-coveted portfolio or lead the opposition. She plans to announce a final decision on Sunday.
Meanwhile, the Obama Administration appears confident that Iran intends to pursue nuclear weapons capability regardless of their claims to the contrary. Leon Panetta, nominee for CIA director, stated “”From all the information I’ve seen… I think there is no question that they are seeking that capability.”
Meanwhile, a Turkey-brokered Israel-Syria peace deal nearly took off with direct talks between the two nations’ premiers before the initiation of Operation Cast Lead, according to Turkish officials. However the operation, which ignited a heated debate between Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan and Israeli President Shimon Peres at last month’s Davos conference, postponed any such talks and left Turkish officials baffled. “Nobody imagined that Olmert would go behind Erdogan’s back like that and not even hint that he intended to start fighting in Gaza,” a Turkish official said.
In an opinion piece in the Wall Street Journal, Arthur Herman cautions President Obama from pursuing the same paradigm for Middle East peace as Jimmy Carter. He claims that Carter reluctantly pursed Camp David and former Egyptian President Anwar Sadat deserves credit for the success of the accords. He also states that “The Palestinian issue is the doom, not the starting point, for lasting stability in the region.” On one hand, Herman’s correct. Sadat, Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin and General Moshe Dayan neglected the Palestinian cause in order to secure an agreement on the Israeli withdrawal from Sinai. Sadat understood that he needed to place Egypt’s needs, returning the Sinai, ahead of any Pan-Arab desires. However, with additional national identity obtained by the Palestinians in the last twenty years, direct negotiations and statehood could stabilize the region and serve as another springboard for democracy as opposed to autocratic regimes.
