This blog mostly has discussed the BRIC nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China) as the main rising powers of the world. One often overlooked rising power is Turkey. Turkey has been an important bridge between the East and West for centuries (as the modern Turkish state and previous national and imperial incarnations). In the 21st century, Turkey has proved valuable as an interlocutor, serving as a value-add to both the West and to its more anti-West neighbors.
Most recently, Turkey, as a third party, brokered indirect talks between Syrian and Israeli officials, seeking for a peace deal. The talks have stalled, and the new Israeli government led by conservative Binyamin Netanyahu is unlikely to want to rekindle them, at least in the open. What is interesting is that Israelis and the international community seem to have nearly forgotten Turkey’s strong words for Israel over its Gaza war and Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s walk-out from the World Economic Forum’s Davos summit following an altercation with Israeli President Shimon Peres. Even when Turkey has not been host to talks, it has served as a consultant to negotiations, as is the case for Egypt during Hamas-Israel peace efforts and Palestinian reconciliation attempts. Indeed, some have even referred to Turkey’s “obsession” with mediation.
The Obama administration has been quick to capitalize on a positive relationship with Ankara. US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s visit to Turkey this past weekend was friendly and encouraging, and even resulted in the discussion of Turkish-brokered talks between the US and Iran. Although the talks remain simply a possibility, it is apparent that both Tehran and Washington have reached out to Turkey to be the interlocutor. Turkish Foreign Minister Ali Babacan put it most succinctly when speaking about negotiations run by Ankara:
“The term mediation is used at times. This will only be realized if a concrete request is made by both sides. We could contribute to the furthering of relations between the two nations to a positive level.” Read more here.
If Turkey does succeed in bringing the US and Iran to the table, it will have accomplished a great deal. Nevertheless, it will still have a lot left to accomplish.
Turkey’s helpfulness to the US does have a few limits, however. Two important hot button issues exist between Ankara and Washington:
Despite these issues, and despite a host of internal divisions, terror threats, a complicated relationship with the EU, and a shaky economy, Turkey is a rising power to be watched, most particularly in its diplomatic role and ability to shape conflict resolution in the Middle East. (It would be interesting to compare Turkey’s role to Iran’s role – another regional dominant power, but in a much more forceful way.)
