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China Up, China Down

China Up China Down

Many analysts and commentators disagree on the implications of the global economic turmoil for China. Will China gain or lose relative power? Will China be a winner or loser in the game for geopolitical influence?

Experts are of two minds.

On the one hand, an estimated 20 million have already lost their jobs and exports are plunging. The World Bank predicts an annual growth rate of 6.5 percent. While strong, this is below the magic eight percent cited by Chinese leaders as the minimum yearly growth necessary to maintain order. With increasing numbers of protests and 2009 being the year of sensitive anniversaries – Tibetan uprising, Tiananmen protests, Falun Gong banning and Communist party rule – the threats of social unrest and high-level policy disagreements are present. This will be a difficult year for China.

On the other, the crisis can improve China’s competitive advantage. A recent article in the New York Times sums up the argument – “the global economic downturn, and efforts to reverse it, will probably make China an even stronger economic competitor than it was before the crisis.” Beijing’s stimulus spending will address weaknesses and the country will play an increasingly role in the international economic order.

There is, paradoxically, truth in both outlooks.

China is better placed than most to weather the crisis and recover strongly. But potential does not equal reality. Relative power will depend on what actually happens in the future and definitive forecasts are premature.

Photo from Getty Images.

 

Author

David Kampf

David Kampf is a writer and researcher based in Washington, DC. He is also a columnist for Asia Chronicle. He analyzes international politics, foreign policy and economic development, and his pieces have appeared in various publications, including China Rights Forum, African Security Review and World Politics Review. Recently, he directed communications for the U.S. Agency for International Development and President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief in Rwanda. Prior to living in East Africa, he worked in China and studied in Brazil, India and South Africa.

Area of Focus
International Politics; Foreign Affairs; Economic Development

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