Most observers, myself included, concur that the African National Congress is likely to win South Africa’s April elections handily. The Congress of the People lacks the infrastructure, the public loyalty, and the heft at the top of the ticket (former bishop Mvume Dandala is a good man, but is not seen as having the killer instinct needed at the top ranks of electoral politics) to pose a serious threat to the incumbent governing party.
And yet something keeps gnawing at me. Prominent members of the ANC continue to defect from the party. Many of them are heading directly to to COPE. And the fact that so many of them are leaving the ANC because of Jacob Zuma’s presence at the top of the party ticket must be especially disquieting to the party. Furthermore, a smattering of defectors have come crawling back to the ANC. And the ANC has indicated that they are welcome to return. A party so traditionally committed to party loyalty, and to punishing apostates, would not so easily accept members slinking back after testing the grass on the other side unless it felt that it needed those members.
