Foreign Policy Blogs

Democratic Divisions in a Rising Power

turkey-elections

Turkish municipal elections just finished today.  The vote is seen by many as a confidence vote for the ruling AK Party (Justice and Development Party) of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan.  Most electoral analysts expect the AK, an Islamist Party which is highly criticized by secularists and military leaders, to retain its majority leadership over the Nationalist Republican Peoples’ party, despite an upturn in unemployment along with an economic slowdown.  Turkey has a secular constitution, and the rule of Islamists, however moderate they may be, has provided quite lively debate in Ankara over the nature and future of the Turkish state, traditionally protecting a strict division between religion and politics.

In some locations the election turned violent, such as in the southeast, a region dominated by a vocal Kurdish minority.  Some reports show 6 killed in election-related fighting.  The AK Party is attempting to win support in this region traditionally represented by the Kurdish Democratic Society party (DTP).

US President Barack Obama will make a key visit to Turkey next week as part of his campaign to engage the larger Islamic world.  Regardless of the outcome of the elections, Obama is likely to emphasize the importance of the success of democracy in this majority Muslim nation, unique among most other rising powers for its relative freedoms (for the ethnic Turks) and western-friendly face.

UPDATE:

After this posting was first published, election results started coming in.  The AK Party so far has 8% less points than in the election 2 years ago.  The main factor for the decline in AK Party power: the financial crisis.

 

Author

Christopher Herbert

Christopher Herbert is an analyst of foreign affairs with specific expertise in US foreign policy, the Middle East and Asia. He is Director of Research for the Denver Research Group, has written for the Washington Post’s PostGlobal and Global Power Barometer and has served on projects for the United States Pacific Command and the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency. He has degrees from Yale University and Harvard University in Middle Eastern history and politics and speaks English, French, Arabic and Italian.

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US Foreign Policy; Middle East; Asia.

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