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Issues in the Caucasus – a playing field for both Russian and American influence

kaukasus

The New York-based website Eurasianet.org, part of the Open Society Institute, issued 2 reports today on happenings in the Caucasus.

First, Stephen Blank, a professor at the US Army War College, writes an article on Friday’s agreement in the form of a memorandum of understanding between Russia’s Gazprom (state controlled energy company) and the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan (SOCAR).  Blank’s argument is that the deal is indicative of Russia’s nervousness about its slippery hold on energy reserves in the Caspian Basin.  And Russia has cause to worry.  The Caucasus is quite an active playing ground between Western interests and the agenda of resurgent Russia.  The August Georgia war that placed the breakaway republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia firmly under Moscow’s watch is the most obvious manifestation of Russia-West tension.  What are the causes?  To name a few:

  • NATO expansion: Georgia has repeatedly expressed its desire to join the strategic organization
  • Geostrategic positioning: The Caucasus is a region that gives a potent military a chance to strike at the soft underbelly of Russia.
  • Russia’s shaky hold on the northern Caucasus: Daghestan, Ingushetia, Chechnya… the list continues.  All are breakaway regions and by asserting itself over the independent nations of the southern Caucasus, Russia is indirectly able to reaffirm its hold on the northern areas.
  • Pipeline politics: A key pipeline runs from Baku in Azerbaijan, through Georgian territory, and then into Turkey.  Various EU and American groups plan to use the pipeline as part of the Nabucco project that will eventually pipe gas from Turkmenistan all the way to Vienna.  This runs in opposition to Russian plans to continue its energy dominance.

And so the agreement between SOCAR and Gazprom is particularly interesting because it essentially guarantees that Azerbaijan will pump its gas to Russia, and not towards Georgia and Turkey.  The conditions: Russia will match whatever price for gas Europe is willing to pay on the Nabucco project.  Russia is desperate.  Its economy is faltering, the ruble continues to lose value, and its population continues to shrink.  The Kremlin has showered Azerbaijan with good will this past month, and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov even made a trip to Baku.  By saying it will match the European price, Russia is signaling that it is willing to cut its losses over the Nabucco/South Stream dispute just as long as it continues to be the dominating force in the gas market to Europe… that is, unless the diplomats and planners in Brussels intensify their work on Nabucco and present Azerbaijan a stronger offer than Moscow can do.

And that’s not all…

The Caucasus dominated Eurasianet.org’s radar with another story – this one about Georgia.  As Russia showers aid on Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Washington is planning to secure a western-leaning Georgia.  Giorgi Lomsadze, a freelance reporter based in Tbilisi, explains:

US Joint Chiefs of Staff Deputy Chairman General James Cartwright stated on March 30 that the US will “soon” begin training Georgian soldiers for “homeland defense.” The announcement comes as the most specific indication to date of how the United States plans to assist Georgia’s post-war military reforms.  Read more.

The US is propping up Tblisi as a strong counterweight to the more Moscow-friendly Azerbaijan and Armenia, and it is guaranteeing the security for the Nabucco pipeline that can ultimately take away a part of Russia’s energy dominance.

 

Author

Christopher Herbert

Christopher Herbert is an analyst of foreign affairs with specific expertise in US foreign policy, the Middle East and Asia. He is Director of Research for the Denver Research Group, has written for the Washington Post’s PostGlobal and Global Power Barometer and has served on projects for the United States Pacific Command and the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency. He has degrees from Yale University and Harvard University in Middle Eastern history and politics and speaks English, French, Arabic and Italian.

Area of Focus
US Foreign Policy; Middle East; Asia.

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