As I reported on March 29 and March 30, Russia and Turkmenistan seemed to be headed for a new level of mutually-beneficial relations. They had signed a series of treaties and left only one to be signed, on gas, for a date in the near future, after they had worked out some kinks. Then on April 9, the pipeline connecting the two countries exploded, with each side blaming the other. The explosion has ceased all imports of Turkmen gas into Russia.
As with any event in Central Eurasian politics, it is very hard to know what actually happened. Anything said or written within or without the country is mostly supposition. Which isn’t to say my job here is pointless, but I can only do so much. So far, the most plausible explanation of the explosion comes via Radio Liberty, which argues that Russia did it. Ever since they agreed to pay European prices to their Central Asian suppliers at the height of the resource price boom, they have been losing a lot of money. Now that Ukraine, the primary recipient of Turkmen gas, has sharply decreased its imports, as the demand for energy there drops due to the crisis, Russia no longer wants, or is no longer able to, pay high prices for gas it does not need right now. In the coming days, I hope the picture becomes clearer as to who did this and why.
