The results are in. I will be following up my preview of the South African elections with an analysis of the outcomes later this week, but here is the shorthand view each party should take away from an election that saw massive voter turnout:
The African National Congress: (Almost 11.7 million votes, 65.9%) Still the king of the hill. The party has every reason to be happy. Now let’s see what it does with a mandate that is somewhat smaller than that enjoyed by Thabo Mbeki in 2004 and that falls short of the magical 2/3 total that would allow the ANC to modify the constitution at will. Jacob Zuma has completed the cycvle of redemption, at least in the eyes of his supporters.
The Democratic Alliance: (Almost 3 million, 16.66%) Helen Zille and her supporters probably awoke on Thursday every bit as happy as the ANC. Even with the presence of the Congress of the People (COPE), not only does the DA continue on as the official opposition, but it added considerable sums to its vote totals and it regained control of the Western Cape. I was sure that the DA would be the big losers in all of this. Not so.
Congress of the People: (Just over 1.3 million, 7.42%) The high-profile defectors from the ANC to COPE, a party that started off with so much hope, have to feel as if they have been kicked in the shins. Once expected to challenge the ANC for national supremacy, COPE proved an afterthought even to the Democratic Alliance, over which it ought to have had many advantages. COPE is probably going through many existential throes this week. The party still has a great deal of promise, but can it survive such an ignominious defeat?
Inkatha Freedom Party: (Just over 800,000, 4.56%) Mangosutho Buthelezi’s IFP has been consigned to irrelevance. It even got stomped in its own KwaZulu-Natal backyard.
Everyone Else: Perhaps the day of the minor party profusion in South Africa is over. Surely there will be a few unreconstructed parties advocating white separation, which is just in impotent version of white supremacy, and perhaps some hardline or one-issue parties, but depending on what happens to COPE (which might include merging with the DA or perhaps simply using the next five years to grow a legitimate grassroots challenger to the ANC), South Africa may have seen a process whereby three parties have emerged as legitimate national presences.
